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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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203 FXUS64 KTSA 150220 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A mid level shortwave was progressing eastward across North Central Kansas this evening with a trailing surface boundary extending southwest to just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle. An increasing low level jet over top of the surface boundary interacting with the shortwave was aiding in the development of a broken line of convection along the boundary from far Southern Kansas to far Northwest Missouri. Through the overnight hours this shortwave is expected to continue its eastward track into Northeast Missouri...while at the same time flattening the ridge of high pressure and shifting the high center southeast into Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas. In response... the surface boundary...which could become more of an outflow boundary...is progged to move into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight/early morning Thursday with low end chance PoPs mainly north of Interstate 44. The greater thunder potential should remain north of the CWA...closer to the shortwave and underneath the low level jet core. Gusty winds and lightning look to be the main threats with this activity tonight. Across the rest of the CWA...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low temps again in the 70s are forecast. Thus...for the evening update...have added adjustments to PoPs/timing and wind grids based on the mentioned above. The rest of the forecast looks to be handling well at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Corridor of showers and storms are likely to be ongoing near or across portions of NE OK tomorrow morning. This convection should wane by early afternoon though may not completely dissipate. Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor by late afternoon. Pooled moisture along the boundary will mark a zone of stronger instability and the scenario of persistent weak convection gradually intensifying or renewed storm development along the boundary will have access to the stronger instability and improving wind fields aloft. A window for more organized storms and associated severe potential will exist from mid afternoon through mid/late evening with fcst soundings supporting localized damaging downburst winds possible. Dangerous heat will continue on Thursday with any thunderstorm influences likely too late in the day to inhibit another widespread footprint of high heat index / wet bulb globe temps. Hot and humid conditions likely continue into Friday with potential for storms from late evening into overnight hours as another wave passes on the periphery of the upper ridge. The Friday night into early Saturday window will need to be monitored for heavy rain potential as several model members do suggest isolated heavy totals. The upper ridge may slowly become centered more westward over the weekend with temps nearer seasonal normals, however expect hot afternoon heat index values to continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight period for all sites. Isolated showers and storms may approach BVO during the morning hours as a front moves into the region, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front in NE OK tomorrow afternoon into the evening, potentially impacting BVO, TUL, and RVS. These storms may produce heavy rainfall, reduced vsbys and strong winds. Storms will move east into NW AR, potentially impacting NW AR sites after 00z tomorrow. Short range guidance indicates potential for one or more outflow boundaries to move into NE OK during the morning hours which may lead to more variable wind speed & direction... though southerly winds are expected to persist overall ahead of the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 99 76 98 / 10 20 30 10 FSM 76 101 78 100 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 78 99 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 76 99 71 96 / 30 40 30 10 FYV 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 20 10 BYV 75 98 73 97 / 10 20 30 10 MKO 76 97 76 96 / 0 10 20 10 MIO 77 97 71 96 / 20 40 40 10 F10 78 98 74 98 / 0 10 20 10 HHW 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059- 062-063-068-069-073-075. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060- 061-064>067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43