203
FXUS64 KTSA 150220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A mid level shortwave was progressing eastward across North
Central Kansas this evening with a trailing surface boundary
extending southwest to just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle. An
increasing low level jet over top of the surface boundary
interacting with the shortwave was aiding in the development of a
broken line of convection along the boundary from far Southern
Kansas to far Northwest Missouri.

Through the overnight hours this shortwave is expected to continue
its eastward track into Northeast Missouri...while at the same
time flattening the ridge of high pressure and shifting the high
center southeast into Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas. In
response... the surface boundary...which could become more of an
outflow boundary...is progged to move into Northeast Oklahoma late
tonight/early morning Thursday with low end chance PoPs mainly
north of Interstate 44. The greater thunder potential should
remain north of the CWA...closer to the shortwave and underneath
the low level jet core. Gusty winds and lightning look to be the
main threats with this activity tonight.

Across the rest of the CWA...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and low temps again in the 70s are forecast. Thus...for the
evening update...have added adjustments to PoPs/timing and wind
grids based on the mentioned above. The rest of the forecast looks
to be handling well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Corridor of showers and storms are likely to be ongoing near or
across portions of NE OK tomorrow morning. This convection should
wane by early afternoon though may not completely dissipate.
Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold
front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor
by late afternoon. Pooled moisture along the boundary will mark a
zone of stronger instability and the scenario of persistent weak
convection gradually intensifying or renewed storm development
along the boundary will have access to the stronger instability
and improving wind fields aloft. A window for more organized
storms and associated severe potential will exist from mid
afternoon through mid/late evening with fcst soundings supporting
localized damaging downburst winds possible.

Dangerous heat will continue on Thursday with any thunderstorm
influences likely too late in the day to inhibit another
widespread footprint of high heat index / wet bulb globe temps.

Hot and humid conditions likely continue into Friday with
potential for storms from late evening into overnight hours as
another wave passes on the periphery of the upper ridge. The
Friday night into early Saturday window will need to be monitored
for heavy rain potential as several model members do suggest
isolated heavy totals.

The upper ridge may slowly become centered more westward over the
weekend with temps nearer seasonal normals, however expect hot
afternoon heat index values to continue through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight period
for all sites. Isolated showers and storms may approach BVO during
the morning hours as a front moves into the region, but
confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
in NE OK tomorrow afternoon into the evening, potentially
impacting BVO, TUL, and RVS. These storms may produce heavy
rainfall, reduced vsbys and strong winds. Storms will move east
into NW AR, potentially impacting NW AR sites after 00z tomorrow.
Short range guidance indicates potential for one or more outflow
boundaries to move into NE OK during the morning hours which may
lead to more variable wind speed & direction... though southerly
winds are expected to persist overall ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  99  76  98 /  10  20  30  10
FSM   76 101  78 100 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   78  99  76  98 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   76  99  71  96 /  30  40  30  10
FYV   74  96  74  96 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   75  98  73  97 /  10  20  30  10
MKO   76  97  76  96 /   0  10  20  10
MIO   77  97  71  96 /  20  40  40  10
F10   78  98  74  98 /   0  10  20  10
HHW   77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059-
 062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060-
     061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43