631
FXUS64 KTSA 080507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances Tuesday and again this weekend.

   - Limited severe potential Tuesday with locally damaging wind
     the primary threat. Also, a heavy rain threat will exist
     through Tuesday evening.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A compact mid level low currently located over eastern Oklahoma
was slowly move eastward Monday night. At the same time, a deep
moisture plume from the Texas Gulf coast, resided across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features
along with continued elevated instability were allowing for
scattered showers and a few storms to remain ongoing across east
central Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas.

This mid level compact low and its associated wind shift is
expected to continue its eastward path into southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas by 12z Tuesday. With the disturbance holding
over the region Monday night, will continue shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly along and east of the associated wind
shift south/east of Interstate 44 through northwest Arkansas.
There could be an uptick in coverage toward sunrise Tuesday
morning and will carry slightly higher PoPs for that time period.

The compact mid level low moves through the CWA Tuesday morning
ahead of the main area of low pressure currently pushing southeast
through the Central Plains. This shortwave is progged to move into
the region Tuesday afternoon and looks to exit Tuesday late evening.
In response, to the features moving through the region, storm
chances continue Tuesday morning and increase Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening with the greater potential across southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas where the deep moisture plume is expected to
remain.

Slightly higher deep layer shear values, max heating and both
surface/elevated instability interacting with the afternoon
shortwave will help to create limited severe potentials over the
CWA. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat. At the same
time, with the ample amounts of moisture over the region, a heavy
rain threat exists through Tuesday evening.

In the wake of the exiting shortwave Tuesday night, short-term
solutions indicate a secondary compact low developing over the
Central Plains and moving southward through Oklahoma. There is
differing guidance with a potential MCS from this disturbance and
for now will keep low chance PoPs overnight Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain forecast across
mainly the southern half of the CWA Wednesday with the secondary
disturbance moving southeast near the Red River. Behind this
disturbance, more northerly flow is expected into Wednesday night
which could help to push the deep moisture plume east and southeast
of the CWA. In response, will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria
for Thursday.

The ridge of high pressure that currently remains over the Desert
Southwest is progged to flatten out Wednesday night/Thursday as a
wave moves into the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge flattens out, an
increase in southerly low level flow will aid in warmer and more
humid conditions Thursday into Friday. Heat index values late week
of upper 90s to near 105 degrees remains possible across much of
the CWA.

With the more zonal flow late week, a leading shortwave to the wave
moving into the Pacific Northwest is forecast to push through the
Plains Friday with the parent wave moving through the Plains
Saturday. A frontal boundary with the parent trof axis could
approach the CWA during the weekend. However, there remains
uncertainty with just how far south this boundary can travel before
lifting back northward. Either way, shower and thunderstorm chances
return Friday and continue off and on through the upcoming weekend
across the CWA. With the return of rain chances, temperatures for
the weekend look to be slightly cooler compared to the warmest days
of the week being Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with reductions
in category likely to be tied to any on station thunderstorm
impacts. Existing activity along the I-40 corridor may continue to
impact MLC and FSM for the first couple of hours of the period,
which will be covered with a short TEMPO and a VCSH mention,
respectively. Next issue convection-wise is the potential for
sunrise (and just after) development tied to the subtle MCV from
the existing storms. CAMs show this well, with impact potential at
mainly FSM and MLC near the western edge. A PROB30 will cover this
potential at FSM with a VCSH mention at MLC for now. Otherwise,
more diurnal thunderstorm development remains expected with
potential impacts to all 8 terminals. Greatest coverage likely at
the W AR sites, with the main time frame covered with a TEMPO
featuring MVFR conditions and PROB30s for the few hour period
prior given lesser confidence in the earlier time frames. PROB30s
will be maintained at the E OK terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  73  93 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   75  91  73  95 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   73  89  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   70  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   70  89  68  91 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   70  89  69  92 /  20  30   0  10
MKO   72  91  71  92 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   71  90  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
F10   72  90  71  92 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   72  89  71  92 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22