001
FXUS64 KTSA 130500
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 903 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Current forecast in good shape heading into the overnight period.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible across parts of far
NE OK and NW AR towards sunrise, and current low PoPs has this
accounted for. Low temperatures are in line with latest trends and
observations, as are the remaining first period elements.
No update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A strong mid level ridge currently centered in southern Nevada will
shift eastward and expand into the area. Gradually rising heights
will translate into warming at the surface, with high temperatures
rising into the upper 90s to low 100s over the weekend and into
early next week. Persistent southerly flow will continue to
advect water vapor into the area, so dew points will remain
elevated, generally near or above the 90th percentile for this
time of year. The combination of high temperatures and humidity
will lead to another round of potential heat products through the
weekend and into early next week. Marginal Heat Advisory
conditions for a few counties are expected Saturday, but will let
the next shift evaluate the need for any products. Heat will
become more widespread Sunday and Monday with a better chance of
heat product issuance. A weak upper level trough axis will remain
above the previously mentioned ridge the next few days (200-300
hPa) providing some lift, but this will be mitigated by mid to
lower atmosphere subsidence and too much dry air above the
surface. In the end, an isolated pesky shower might be possible
Saturday evening into Sunday, but the probability will generally
be too low to carry mentionable pops in the grids.

By the middle of next week the mid level ridge will again weaken and
retreat back to the west with evidence of weak troughing developing
south of the area. Then, as another mid level trough rounds the
ridge and dives into the central Plains it will interact with the
trough to the south of the area. The end result should be cooler
temperatures and an increase in precipitation chances as a cold
front surges into the region. Ensemble cluster guidance indicates
that subtle differences in the position of the various players in
this pattern will affect how much rainfall and cooling occurs, but
with a solid ensemble signal pops were boosted for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated convection has developed across south central KS and this
corridor of mid level moisture will support low shower and
thunderstorm chance into far NE OK / far NW AR later tonight into
Saturday morning. Forecast will include impact mention of this
potential and adjust as coverage becomes more clear. Otherwise VFR
conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  78  99 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   74  97  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   74  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   74  97  73  99 /  10  20   0  10
FYV   72  94  71  96 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   72  94  71  96 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   74  96  74  96 /   0  20   0  10
MIO   74  95  74  97 /  10  20   0  10
F10   74  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   72  94  73  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07