604
FXUS64 KTSA 131126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A mild start this morning will give way to another hot day across
the region this afternoon. A weak disturbance will drop
southeastward across eastern Kansas and into southern Missouri
this morning. This could bring a few elevated showers/storms along
with some cloud cover to parts of far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas from mid to late morning. Otherwise, a hot and
dry day as a strong mid level ridge continues to slowly expand
eastward into the Plains. Increasing humidity will also lead to
heat index values exceeding 100 degrees for many locations this
afternoon. Some locations could exceed Heat Advisory criteria, but
will hold off for now and let the day shift monitor trends for any
issuance later this morning. Nevertheless, continue your heat
related precautions when spending time outdoors today. Gusty
south-southwesterly winds will also increase into the afternoon
as the region stays planted between sfc ridging to the south and
troughing to the north.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the Plains for the
next several days, leading to hot and dry conditions into the
middle part of next week. Heat headlines will likely be needed
from Sunday through Tuesday as these are expected to be the
hottest days of the period. Highs will be near or above 100 for
most of the area through Tuesday, with breezy conditions keeping
overnight lows mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By the middle
part of the week however, a deep upper trough will drop into the
eastern CONUS pushing the ridge back west. Strengthening
northwesterly flow aloft over the Plains should allow for a
frontal boundary to drift through the region by Wednesday into
Thursday. This will bring increasing thunderstorm chances along
with cooler temperatures for the latter part of the work week and
next weekend. Subtle differences exist in the ensemble guidance in
how far west the ridge shifts, which will play a role in where
the more widespread rain chances set up. Shower/storm chances look
to continue through the rest of this forecast package as the
ridge axis remains well west of the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Scattered showers and storms along the OK/KS border will slowly
spread south and east through the morning. Highest confidence for
any flight level impacts will be for KBVO with other sites across
NE OK and far NW AR having only low chance of flight
restrictions. Precip will diminish or focus north of the region by
late morning or early afternoon. Other than any impacts from the
morning precip, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  73  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  97  72 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   94  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  97  76 /  20   0   0   0
F10   95  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  72  93  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07