520
FXUS64 KTSA 200149
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows broad mid/upper-level
troughing present over much of the eastern CONUS with embedded
shortwave troughs over the Mississippi River Valley and
Northern/Central Plains. As of this writing, a complex of
thunderstorms is already ongoing across west/central KS. This
complex will need to be monitored through the night as it
continues to advance southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
For what it`s worth, despite the approaching shortwave, CAMs have
consistently suggested the complex loses its strength and
dissolves as it push into the northwestern part of the forecast
area around or just after sunrise Saturday. Regardless, mid/high
level clouds will increase from northwest-to-southeast as the
overnight/early morning hours progress.

In summary, high pressure will continue to maintain mostly
pleasant and tranquil conditions through the remainder of the
night across eastern OK and northwest AR. Winds will remain
light, turning more SE/ESE after midnight tonight. Expect another
night of unseasonably cool temperatures, perhaps not as cool as
last night though. In general, most locations will see overnight
lows drop into the low-mid 60s. A few higher elevated locations
in northwest AR and isolated spots in far northeast OK may drop
into the upper 50s before sunrise Saturday.

For the evening update, only made minor adjustments to the
overnight low temperatures, specifically in far northeast OK and
far northwest AR, lowering them a degree or two. Otherwise, the
ongoing forecast remains on track and valid.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
A few scattered showers from overnight complex to the northwest could
move move into far northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Any storms
will likely be weakening by this time as a relatively dry air-
mass remains in place. Better precipitation chances are expected
Saturday night into Sunday as initial mid level wave/upper jet
streak moves through the region.

Longwave trough will remain over the central/southern Plains with
secondary disturbance/upper low approaching from the north Sunday
night. Another round of scattered showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall
totals through Monday will generally stay in the 0.5-1.0 inch
range, although locally higher amounts are possible in a few
locations.

Modest warming trend will develop for the middle to latter part of
the work next as upper ridging slowly builds in from the west. A few
isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far SE
OK/NW AR, mainly in the higher terrain areas. Main upper high will
remain over the desert Southwest, keeping temperatures near or only
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue into the
overnight hours across the CWA. Late tonight into Saturday morning
cloud cover is expected to increase from the northwest as an area
of low pressure sags southward into the Central Plains. A slight
chance of precip could become possible for Northeast Oklahoma
Saturday morning...or a possible outflow boundary moving into the
region from ongoing convection in Northern Kansas. For now will
hold of on mentioning in the TAFs due to uncertainties in
coverage/impact to any one terminal. During the day
Saturday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast.
A slight chance of showers/storms will remain for Northeast
Oklahoma during the day...with the greater chances just outside of
this TAF period. Winds through the period should continue to be
light/variable into Saturday with a shift more toward southerly
winds during the day. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  65  88  69 /   0   0  20  40
FSM   89  65  89  71 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   88  65  89  69 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   87  59  85  66 /   0   0  20  50
FYV   85  57  86  66 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   83  59  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   90  64  89  69 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   84  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  40
F10   89  64  89  69 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   89  65  89  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20