Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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265 FXUS64 KTSA 031617 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers persist late this morning near the Kansas border but should continue its current decrease in coverage into early afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development remains expected mid to late afternoon into the evening, focused across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas. Instability levels will support a localized severe wind threat with the strongest storms. The previous forecast had the general trends handled well and only minor tweaks - namely to increase POPs through the rest of the morning with the ongoing activity and also to spread the low POPs late this afternoon further south given data from recent CAMs. The ongoing showers and residual cloud cover do make the temperature and heat index forecast somewhat problematic, with highs likely to be lower than previously forecast on the northern fringes of the forecast area. Have lowered forecast highs some using the short-term consensus blend and some tweaks to such according to current observations. This, of course, decreases the expected afternoon heat index values in mainly Osage and Pawnee counties but not enough to justify cancelling the existing Heat Advisory there, especially given the current heat indices observed by the Mesonet over eastern Pawnee and southeastern Osage counties. Will monitor trends into early afternoon and adjust these thoughts as necessary. Updated forecast is already out. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Cold front is forecast to stall near the I-44 corridor tonight and will briefly lift back north into the day Thursday. Heat indices will again be a concern and will go ahead and issue heat advisory areawide. Majority of models, including several CAMS, suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along frontal boundary by late afternoon with storms pushing across much of northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms. This activity is expected to continue overnight as storms move through the remainder of southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas overnight. Finally a break on Friday from the relentless heat of late, behind cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s in most areas. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas before shifting south by Friday evening. Both GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement with another upper level trough digging into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. There is some potential for a MCS to develop to the north, potentially impacting portions of the area Sunday night. Better moisture return/instability may end of being slightly west of the area, but still eastern Oklahoma could get clipped by eastern edge of complex during this time. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for the early part of next week as broad upper trough remains across the central/eastern CONUS with at least low precip chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Light rain showers continue to move northeastward across NE OK this morning. A few lightning strikes are embedded in the rain as well. These showers/storms may impact TUL, RVS, and BVO through mid-late morning, but confidence isn`t high enough to include the mention of rain/storms at this time. Slightly better storm chances will come this afternoon, mainly impacting NE OK and NW AR terminals, as a weak frontal boundary sags in to NE OK and becomes stationary along/near the I-44 corridor. Kept Prob30 groups at BVO, TUL, RVS, ROG, XNA, and FYV from mid afternoon through at least 00z this evening, perhaps lingering through midnight for the NE OK terminals. Although VFR is expected to prevail, heavier rain may cause lower ceilings and reduced visibilities briefly. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR will prevail through the TAF period with light-moderate south to southwest winds. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 79 99 71 / 30 20 30 50 FSM 101 80 100 76 / 10 10 20 50 MLC 98 79 98 72 / 10 0 20 50 BVO 92 73 96 65 / 40 30 40 40 FYV 98 75 97 69 / 20 10 30 60 BYV 97 75 97 69 / 40 30 30 60 MKO 100 78 98 71 / 20 10 20 60 MIO 94 74 96 67 / 40 40 40 60 F10 100 78 99 70 / 20 10 30 60 HHW 98 78 97 73 / 10 0 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67