Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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163 FXUS64 KTSA 040240 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 940 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms (some strong) had developed this evening along a boundary generally aligned along the I-44 corridor in NE OK. Storms have since weakened substantially with perhaps just some isolated showers continuing into the early overnight period across far NE OK/ NW AR. A semi-stationary frontal zone remains over NE OK/ SE KS tonight. As a LLJ strengthens across the region, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop within this zone overnight. Additionally, convection from the high plains will be moving east with time tonight, potentially impacting our area during the early morning hours Thursday. That being said, most shower/ storm activity tonight should tend to be confined to the OK-KS border area (northernmost row of counties in NE OK). In fact, CAMs suggest most showers and storms will remain in Kansas, with only a slight chance of precip in our area. In any case, any storms may produce gusty outflow winds tonight, even if most precip remains outside our area. For the evening update, PoPs were adjusted to better match latest short-range guidance and minor changes were made to temps/ dew points to better reflect current conditions. Otherwise the forecast appears to be in good shape with no significant deviations required at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of eastern OK and west-central AR with a Heat Advisory in effect for the remainder of the area. Heat indices are currently in the 100-110F range, and will climb to 105-115F. A few lingering showers will remain possible into this evening near the KS border by a stationary boundary. CAM guidance remains inconsistent, but does indicate at least a 10-20% chance of a few showers and storms forming farther south towards a line from roughly Tulsa to Miami later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, tonight will be another unusually mild night with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 F. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Excessive heat continues south of the previously mentioned boundary near the KS border into Independence Day (Thursday). Reissued Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of eastern OK and west- central AR with Heat Advisories elsewhere. A cold front will overtake and advance the stationary boundary during the evening with a good chance of thunderstorms developing at that time, especially for northeast OK and northwest AR. The setup will favor storms capable of producing heavy rain and strong downburst winds. The SPC has noted a 15-30% chance of damaging wind gusts in the area with the WPC showing a 5-15% of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Considering the PWAT values of near 2", low level water vapor near the 99th percentile, strong CAPE, and weak wind shear, these outlooks make sense. The storms and associated outflow will move into southeast OK Friday morning and out of the area by the afternoon. Behind the front we can expect a reprieve from the heat and humidity with high temperatures falling into the mid 80s to low 90s (Friday and Saturday). Low temperatures will get into the 60s to low 70s. As southerly flow returns Sunday, temperatures and moisture levels will try to climb again. However, there is uncertainty with how quickly this will occur, with the NBM temperature probabilities showing a relatively large spread Sunday. Even so, considering we will have a cooler upper atmosphere and a renewed chance of rain as the upper level trough axis digs favorably into the region, high temperatures will most likely stay confined to the mid 80s to lower 90s. In terms of timing, rain will be possible for most of the Saturday night to Tuesday period, but ensemble guidance shows later Sunday and Monday as the most likely (30-50% chance of rain). Ensemble cluster analysis depicts sizable uncertainty with how far south the trough will dig during this period, but the more it can dig to the southwest the higher our probability for rain will be. For the middle to end of next week we look to keep the upper level trough overhead so near normal temperatures with at least some chance of rain will continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Scattered convection along and near a boundary stretched across northeast Oklahoma will remain possible into mid evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Thus...will continue with VCTS for northeast Oklahoma TAF sites. Overnight tonight...few to scattered mid clouds and few to broken high clouds are forecast to remain common across the CWA while a second boundary and potential precip move into northeast Oklahoma again late tonight. Current thinking is the greater precip chance overnight looks to be just north of the CWA. During the day Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast to develop over the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the CWA just outside of this TAF period. A surface boundary across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas could be the focus for convection during the afternoon hours. Will add a Prob30 group for timing for these locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 100 69 89 / 30 40 50 10 FSM 79 100 74 91 / 0 20 60 20 MLC 79 99 72 88 / 0 20 60 20 BVO 73 97 65 87 / 40 40 40 10 FYV 76 97 68 86 / 10 30 60 10 BYV 74 97 68 86 / 30 40 60 10 MKO 77 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 10 MIO 73 96 66 85 / 40 50 50 10 F10 78 99 69 88 / 10 30 70 20 HHW 78 97 73 90 / 0 10 50 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059- 063-064-068-069-075. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ UPDATE...43 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...20