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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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720 FXUS64 KTSA 170520 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 It`s been relatively quiet across much of the forecast area this afternoon and thus far this evening. A remnant MCV, currently situated over southwest MO, is causing thunderstorms across northern AR, just east of the forecast area. These storms are aided by modest WAA taking place ahead of the MCV. Trends in the hi-res model guidance suggest storms will build westward across far northwest AR, best chances in Carroll and Madison counties, over the next few hours. In addition to locally heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be the primary threats with any organized storm. Consistency in CAMs indicate additional storms developing across northeast OK and northwest AR after midnight tonight, likely due to a combination of a strengthening low-level jet and the approach of a southward-advancing frontal boundary. The highest chances of precipitation should remain north of the I-40 corridor (along and just north of the frontal boundary) through much of the overnight period, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop south of I-40 closer to daybreak tomorrow morning as the front continues to push south. Instability and 0-6 km shear are expected to decrease through as the night progresses, which should limit the severe potential. However, cannot completely rule out a few strong to severe storms, capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind gusts, with the stronger updrafts that occur. In addition, a flooding potential will exist overnight as locally heavy rainfall appears likely with heavier/training thunderstorms, particularly across northeast OK and northwest AR. The main changes that were made to this update were to adjust the PoPs through 12z. Additional adjustments will likely be needed through the night. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Storm chances will persist while trending southward into Thursday as the front continues a southward push. This will also mark the beginning of a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures that will persist into at least early next week. The pattern of high amplitude ridging in the western CONUS and persistent downstream trough over the plains will result in essentially daily rain and thunderstorm chances, with a possible uptick in coverage over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Main impacts to terminals in the short term will be thunderstorms during the overnight and morning hours. Storms are expected to develop shortly across NE OK sites and spread into NW AR sites through the night. Storm chances decrease to the south but will be possible for those sites during the mid morning hours. Main impacts will be reductions in visibility and lighting. Storms should clear the area by late morning with lesser chances at more thunderstorms development across SE OK and WC AR Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will come around northerly behind a frontal boundary, but will be noticeably lighter than recent days. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 70 90 66 / 40 10 10 0 FSM 92 73 89 69 / 50 50 30 0 MLC 90 70 88 67 / 30 40 20 0 BVO 90 64 89 61 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 87 67 86 61 / 60 30 20 0 BYV 86 66 85 61 / 70 30 10 0 MKO 88 69 88 66 / 40 30 10 0 MIO 86 65 85 62 / 50 10 0 0 F10 88 68 88 65 / 40 30 10 0 HHW 95 70 86 69 / 30 50 40 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>064-066>070. AR...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04