Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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453 FXUS64 KTSA 081915 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Main focus through the remainder of the afternoon and this evening will be on the impacts from Tropical Cyclone Beryl, now classified as a Tropical Storm per the National Hurricane Center, as it continues to push northward across eastern TX and eventually curving northeastward into the ArkLaTex region by tonight. Convective banding has already initiated from daytime heating in portions of west-central AR and southeast OK. Moderate to locally heavy downpours in the bands will continue to slowly spread northward with time. Although the best severe parameters are forecast to stay southeast/east of the forecast area, with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and DCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg, a few storms may be strong and capable of sub-severe gusty winds this afternoon into the early evening hours. A bigger concern will be moderate to heavy tropical rainfall that may lead to flooding/flash flooding tonight. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows PWATs steadily increasing across the forecast area, with values now around or just above 2.0 inches in far southeast OK. With clashing northerly flow across much of the area, storm motion vectors indicate convection will be relatively slow-moving this afternoon and bands will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. As a result of this thinking, the WPC has expanded the SLGT Risk, with at least a 15% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance, a little farther northwestward to near the I-44 corridor in their Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The more persistent heavier rainfall is still expected to fall across southeast OK and west- central/northwest AR late tonight and into Tuesday morning as Beryls center moves over the ArkLaTex region. Will maintain the current Flood Watch timing, but did add Adair County in OK as well as Benton County in AR to the Watch, mainly due a swath of HREF probabilities of 40-60% receiving >= 2 inches for majority of both counties. Still expecting total rainfall amounts generally ranging from 2 to 4 inches, locally higher, in the Flood Watch area through midday Tuesday. Finally for the short-term, wind speeds across far southeast OK and west-central AR will pick up this evening and overnight tonight as Beryl moves into the ArkLaTex region. Some of the higher speeds/gusts will be concentrated in the higher terrain in southeast OK overnight tonight where occasional to frequent gusts 35-40 mph will be possible. Otherwise and elsewhere in the forecast area, temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Moderate to heavy rain is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the long-term period, mostly affecting far southeastern OK and northwest AR through at least midday Tuesday. Consensus in model guidance kicks majority of the rain, especially the heavier rain, out of the forecast area by early afternoon as a mid-level trough carries the remnants of Beryl northeastward and out of the forecast area. Quieter and much more benign weather is anticipated after Tuesday as the trough axis shifts east and mid/upper-level ridging tries to penetrate over much of OK. Although models keep most of the area rain-free through the remainder of the week, weak perturbations in the northwest flow aloft may try to allow diurnally-driven spotty shower/storms for portions of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the main storyline will be a gradual warming trend that will persist into the upcoming weekend and into early next week, with widespread high temperatures returning into the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s by Saturday. More heat headlines appear likely towards the end of the week through early next week. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will tend to deteriorate this afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across E OK & NW AR from south to north. Will likely see some stronger winds and periods of MVFR (perhaps IFR) conditions for sites affected by precip this afternoon/ evening... especially for FSM & MLC. Precip will likely become more widespread and steady tonight into tomorrow morning with cigs & vsbys forecast to fall into MVFR/ IFR category, primarily across SE OK & NW AR sites. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into tomorrow morning. LLWS is expected late in the period for NW AR sites. Flight conditions should improve tomorrow morning across E OK and by the afternoon hours in NW AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 88 66 93 / 40 20 0 0 FSM 69 85 66 92 / 80 60 10 0 MLC 67 85 65 92 / 40 20 0 0 BVO 65 88 63 92 / 30 10 0 0 FYV 65 81 61 89 / 70 70 10 0 BYV 65 78 61 87 / 80 80 10 0 MKO 67 85 65 91 / 40 30 0 0 MIO 68 83 63 89 / 60 40 0 0 F10 66 86 64 92 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 67 85 66 90 / 80 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ049-053-069-072- 074>076. AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...43