Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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831 FXUS64 KTSA 061902 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An absolutely beautiful day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with seasonal temperatures, dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, light winds and plenty of sun. The nice weather will continue through much, if not all, of the overnight, with low temperatures a couple of degrees below seasonal normals. Expect an increase in cloudiness toward daybreak in areas northwest of I-44 as a thunderstorm complex approaches from western/central Kansas. The main source of forecast uncertainty tonight is whether the complex moves into the forecast area before or after daybreak. The bulk of the guidance points toward a daytime arrival, and as such, will keep the forecast dry through 12Z. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The aforementioned thunderstorm complex is expected to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning, likely in a declining state intensity-wise given the lower instability this far east. Areas along and north of I-44 have a medium to high chance to see showers and thunderstorms during the morning, although the chance of severe weather is low. Additional storms should develop during the afternoon and evening, again to the north and west of the area, and move through the area overnight. Higher instability positioned across the western half of Oklahoma and the location of the upper level support will favor areas just west of the forecast area for severe weather and the higher rainfall totals. Into the day Monday, the focus for additional thunderstorms should be across southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas given the moisture moving into that part of the area ahead of Beryl. That same area will remain the focus into mid week, as the remnants of Beryl move across the ArkLaTex. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible on the southeast fringes of the forecast area as the remnants move across, but the highest totals remain likely to stay just to the east. A period of dry weather should arrive by Wednesday night as Beryl is caught up in the upper level trough and carried northeastward away from the region. Low thunderstorm chances will continue at times late in the week and into the weekend until upper level ridging begins to build into the area next weekend. How quickly that occurs remains uncertain, but it does look like our break in the heat for much of this weekend and the upcoming work week will come to an end either next weekend or into the following work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period for most sites. Mostly clear skies and light winds will dominate through this evening. A thunderstorm complex could approach northeast Oklahoma toward the end of the period with increasing mid to high cloud cover and storms possibly affecting KBVO before the end of the TAF period. At this time chances look to hold off at other NE OK sites until after this valid TAF period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 89 68 84 / 0 50 70 60 FSM 71 96 73 88 / 0 10 50 60 MLC 70 93 69 84 / 10 20 60 60 BVO 66 85 65 83 / 10 60 80 50 FYV 68 93 68 86 / 0 0 50 70 BYV 68 94 68 85 / 0 0 50 70 MKO 69 92 68 83 / 10 20 50 60 MIO 68 90 67 83 / 0 20 60 50 F10 69 91 67 82 / 0 30 60 60 HHW 70 92 71 86 / 0 10 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...04