Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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038 FXUS64 KTSA 021842 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 142 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the areas, with Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally in the mid 70s to around 80 F. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place. Dew points were increased above the NBM through much of the period. Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or evening, CAMs indicate fairly large instability but with limited wind shear. There may be just enough lift along the boundary to generate scattered thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these storms would be cold pool dominated and the main hazards would be brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Independence Day (Thursday) will feature more of the same with additional hot and humid weather. By Thursday evening, however, a cold front will overtake the stalled boundary across northeast OK. This will likely result in sufficient lift for more widespread convective initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak steering flow, and minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As these storms develop a surface cold pool, it will force the effective frontal boundary south during the evening and overnight hours. Increased Pops during this period to 40-60%. For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs falling into the upper 80s with dew points into the 60s. Some portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear, may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day. Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s expected across the area. Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime. Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. SOuth winds will continue gusting in the 20-25 knot range into the early evening, before trending more light and variable tonight and Wed morning. Expect increase in mid clouds across NE OK very early Wed morning as weakening showers and thunderstorms track across southern KS. The may result in low prob of precip at KBVo as well as a shift to north winds for a time Wed AM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 98 79 99 / 10 20 20 30 FSM 80 101 79 99 / 0 20 0 20 MLC 79 99 78 98 / 0 20 0 20 BVO 75 93 74 97 / 20 30 20 40 FYV 77 97 75 97 / 10 30 10 30 BYV 77 95 73 97 / 10 40 20 40 MKO 78 98 77 97 / 10 20 20 20 MIO 76 93 75 96 / 30 30 30 40 F10 78 98 77 98 / 10 20 10 30 HHW 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...14