482
FXUS63 KTOP 170800
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and non-severe storms possible this afternoon.

- Cooler, more pleasant airmass settles in through next week.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorm chances return late Friday
  into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Cooler, drier air is marching into the area this morning behind the
cold front that has reached southern KS. Elongated troughing aloft
from the Midwest into the plains region continues for this
afternoon, lending to some uncertainty in isolated
precipitation developing. A minor perturbation is observed and
advertised by the latest HRRR and RAP passing through far
eastern KS by early afternoon, increasing mid level moisture
around 700 mb. Isolated showers and non-severe storms cannot be
ruled out through late afternoon, however most of the area
should remain dry. Sfc high pressure spreads southward through
the day, advecting temps in the low to mid 80s for highs.
Persistence in the forecast continues on Thursday sans precip
chances and cloud cover as guidance focuses any qpf values
towards the high plains.

Return southerly flow occurs on Friday as high pressure modifies
amid warm air advection and h85 temps increasing from 12-18C east to
west. Highs in the low 90s are most likely over north central KS
where enhanced BL mixing and gusty winds reside. A slow moving,
poignant upper low traverses south through the plains late Friday
night, impacting mainly north central areas early Saturday
morning. As the trough axis passes through Kansas on Saturday,
additional showers and storms are likely along and south of
I-70. Moistening profiles throughout the column on the GFS
signals decent rainfall rates that continue into Sunday as the
upper low slows and stalls over the region. Both GFS and EC
ensembles are fairly consistent in rainfall amounts and timing
of rainfall through Sunday evening. Based on the GEFS, probability
of QPF values are near 50% for at least 0.5 inches of rainfall.
Due to the more widespread precip and cloud cover, the
25th-75th percentile on the NBM has trended cooler than previous
runs with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. It`s valid to note
that the timing of the precip could vary readings by as much as
5-10 degrees for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR at terminals as sfc high pressure builds in from the north,
keeping northeasterly winds below 10 kts. Few to Sct mid clouds
should temper fog development this morning, despite a few of the
HREF models showing LIFR visibility around 12Z at KTOP. Will
monitor trends and make amendments if needed.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto