016
FXUS63 KTOP 130526
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm chances this evening and overnight, mainly
over north-central Kansas.

- Heat Advisory from Saturday through Monday area-wide. Forecast
temperatures 98-105 degrees, with heat indices 102-108.

- Mid-week cold front brings rain chances, cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A current look at water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridging in
charge over most of the western half of the CONUS. Farther east,
heights are rising as a weakening trough lifts northeast over the
Great Lakes. Closer to home, a relatively minor vorticity maxima can
be seen moving southeast across western Nebraska. This feature has
the potential to spark a few brief showers and thunderstorms across
the area this evening and tonight. Similar to the past few days,
can`t completely rule out a stronger storm with gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rain, with the best chances coming across north-
central Kansas this evening before the boundary layer starts to
decouple. Otherwise, the main story today is the building heat.
Temperatures have already climbed to the low/mid 90s across portions
of the area, with heat indices around 100. Low chance of a few
showers and storms lingering into tomorrow morning across east-
central Kansas, but these should clear before noon, setting the
stage for a hot and humid Saturday.

The heat peaks Saturday into Monday as the upper ridge builds across
the Plains. As usual the main uncertainty has to deal with the exact
degree of boundary layer mixing, with hotter actual temperatures
typically seeing slightly lower dewpoints. Regardless, confidence is
high that as temperatures climb to near/above 100 degrees, heat
indices each afternoon will peak in the 102 to 108 degree range.
Some locally higher heat indices are likely, mainly in river valleys
or other areas where locally greater moisture pooling or
evapotranspiration can occur. As a result, a Heat Advisory has
been issued from Saturday afternoon into Monday evening.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, an amplifying trough over the northern
Plains and Great Lakes will push a strong cold front southward
through the area. Shower and thunderstorms chances in turn increase
immediately along and behind the front. The timing of this frontal
passage is still the main uncertainty, but has trended slightly
faster over the past few forecast cycles. The slightly more likely
(60% chance) scenario is still for one last hot day with highs
near 100, but with a faster front clouds and precipitation could
keep temperatures lower. Regardless, expecting much cooler
temperatures behind the front for Wednesday into the end of the
week. Highs should stay in the 80s, perhaps even 70s where
clouds and rain showers linger.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will be expected over the TAF period at all
sites. Through the early morning hours today, some LLWS may be
experienced below 2000 ft, but as it is only around 30 knots and
surface winds sustained between 5-10 mph, opted to keep out of
TAFs. The remainder of the TAF will see winds pick up out of the
south/southwest, sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
mph.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Griesemer/Teefey