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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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393 FXUS63 KTOP 131109 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect Today through Monday with daily afternoon heat indices ranging from 100-109 degrees. - A cold front next Tuesday brings our next chance for notable precipitation with cooler temperatures to follow && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A quieter morning is ongoing compared to the last few nights as northeastern Kansas has seen dry conditions with scattered mid-level clouds advecting in from the northeast. Under mostly clear conditions, temperatures have been able to cool a bit with temps as of 2 AM sitting in the upper 70s and low 80s area-wide. Conditions through sunrise this morning should not change much, but as some pockets of mid-level energy round the large upper-level ridge over the 4-corners region, cannot rule out some elevated showers and perhaps an isolated storm along an area of isentropic ascent. That said, current conditions and 00z soundings depict a stout EML that has overspread northeastern KS making it difficult for precipitation to develop. Around sunrise and a few hours after, guidance moistens the low levels a bit across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As the LLJ veers and its nose setting up in this area, scattered showers and storms may develop. Better forcing with this set up appears to be a bit further east of our area and into Missouri, but cannot rule out some precipitation spreading west into east-central KS. Kept some low PoPs to account for this. Beyond the small precipitation chances this morning, the next several days will see very hot conditions with minimal chances for any precip. Mid-level heights increase across the central Plains as downsloping low-level winds help to mix down very hot air each afternoon through Monday. Expect air temperatures today through Monday to reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. Deeper mixing of the BL across central KS should help to keep temperatures out there a few degrees higher than in eastern KS with isolated spots possibly reaching 110 degrees, especially Sunday and Monday. Heat indices each of these afternoons will range from 100-109 degrees and feeling a bit more humid across eastern Kansas where the richer moisture will reside. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through Monday across the entire area. By Tuesday, a cold front will move in from the north, increasing chances for precipitation and ushering in some relief from the heat. Guidance has trended a bit quicker with the frontal passage as the GFS and Euro pushing the boundary into the area early Tuesday. If this solution remains true, a heat headline will not likely be needed. There will likely be a spread in high temperatures Tuesday due to the north to south movement of the front throughout the day with upper 80s near the KS/NE border and mid to upper 90s south of I- 70. Will continue to monitor for the need for any heat headlines across areas south of I-70 over the next few forecast periods. Cooler temperatures continue to filter in behind the boundary with highs in the 80s expected for the remainder of the week. Surface ridging sets up over much of the central Plains through Friday, keeping things dry. Low-level flow returns to the south heading into the weekend as the next wave moves into the area bringing the next notable chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 TAFs are expected to stay VFR through the period at all terminals. Added mention of VCTS at KTOP and KFOE as covection has developed further north this morning than previously thought. Isolated cells should continue to move southeast with an occasional cell approaching the KTOP and KFOE terminals over the next few hours. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest sustained between 12-18 mph with gusts to 25 at times. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer