408
FXUS63 KTOP 140531
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms may redevelop overnight. Confidence is low
  due to the low predictability of the pattern.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday for triple
  digit heat.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday through
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

19Z water vapor showed the upper ridge centered over the four
corners region with northwest flow still over the central
plains. There were some elevated showers over south central NEB
associated with a subtle wave within the flow. Surface obs
showed low pressure over northwest KS. This has kept a gusty
south wind across the forecast area as temps warm through the
90s.

For tonight through Sunday, the models have struggled with the
subtle nature of the pattern and the elevated convection the past
couple night. While it hasn`t been perfect, the upglide/saturation
on the 315K to 320K isentropic surfaces seemed to provide some idea
of where the elevated showers were going to be. With models and
water vapor showing shortwave energy remaining weak, think this may
be the better clue as to where storms form. With the signal for
tonight is not quite as clear on the isentropic surfaces, the NAM
and RAP hint at a band of saturation along with some upglide over
northeast and east central KS through the overnight period, and have
added a slight chance POP to the forecast. This is a low confidence
forecast given the limited predictability. If this activity
develops, is will probably fall apart by mid morning as the upglide
falls apart. By Sunday afternoon models advect a stout EML over the
forecast area with 700MB temps increasing between 13C and 16C. This
will likely prevent any surface based convection and mid levels are
forecast to dry out as the upper ridge propagates east reducing the
potential for elevated precip into Sunday evening.

So attention turns to the heat. The is good agreement among the
operational solutions and the NBM for triple digit heat to continue
spreading east through Monday. Even with dewpoint temps mixing out
across central KS, air temps and apparent temps look to be around
105 degrees for Sunday and Monday. So will maintain the heat
advisory as is.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a weak frontal boundary into the
forecast area Monday night. Curiously though there is not a lot of
convection with the boundary, probably due to the very warm mid
level temps with the EML. The NBM has better chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night when models prog some shortwave energy moving
along the boundary. Still temps for Tuesday should be a little
cooler, though parts of east central KS may still be dealing with
heat indicies around 100. Models show northwest flow redeveloping
for the end of the week and below normal temps as a modified
Canadian airmass moves into the Upper Midwest. This seems to be
handled by the blend and have not made any changes from the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR TAFs can be expected through the period at all sites. Some
low-level turbulence could be experience within the lowest 2 kft
over the next few hours, but have kept any mention of LLWS out
of the TAFs as it would be very marginal with winds sustained
between 10-15 mph through sunrise. Winds will again increase
this afternoon out of the south/southwest, gusting to 20-25 mph
at times. Gusts should begin to decrease around sunrise and
towards the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Griesemer