237
FXUS65 KTFX 052051
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
251 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and again Saturday across primarily north-central
Montana as a series a mainly weak weather disturbances move
across the region under a northwest flow. Temperatures remain near
to slightly below seasonal averages through Saturday before much
warmer and drier conditions develop next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tomorrow... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
underway across portions of north-central and central Montana.
Overall, the severe threat remains low but gusty winds up to 50
mph and half-inch sized hail are still possible with stronger
storms. These showers are expected to taper off by 8 PM. Another
round of showers will start up after sunrise on Saturday and
continue through much of the day. Similar to the past couple days,
these showers will primarily impact north-central and central
Montana with locally heavy downpours. The probability of severe
weather is still less than 10% but small hail and gusty winds are
possible. -thor

Sunday through next week... A drier and warmer period begins
Sunday with much warmer temperatures developing next week as the
offshore upper ridge shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in
good agreement to shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies
mid-late next week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in
the 90s across most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with
temperatures likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in
temperatures is possible by next weekend but this is likely to be
the first multi- day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much
of the area this summer. Hoenisch


&&

.AVIATION...
05/18Z TAF Period

Moist and unstable northwest flow aloft, which has dominated for the
better half of the past week, will bring another round of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the plains of Central and
North Central Montana from this afternoon through the early evening
hours tonight. While VFR conditions will predominately prevail
through the 0518/0618 TAF period, brief periods of MVFR conditions
are possible beneath locally intense showers/storms. Additionally,
these showers and storms will likely produce brief periods of gusty
and erratic outflow winds. Widespread mountain obscuration is not
expected over the next 24 hours. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  75  50  80 /  10  30   0   0
CTB  50  74  48  81 /  10  20   0   0
HLN  56  80  54  85 /  10  30  10   0
BZN  48  79  47  79 /  10  20  10   0
WYS  37  72  37  73 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  47  80  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  51  77  51  83 /  10  30   0   0
LWT  47  70  46  74 /  10  50  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls