Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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065 FXUS65 KTFX 080502 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1101 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS... A significant warming trend and dry conditions will persist through the week as temperatures will rise well above averages. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days with most lower elevation locations reaching into the mid to upper 90s. && .UPDATE... Very minor changes were made with the updated run of the NBM. Otherwise the going forecast is on track. -thor && .AVIATION... 08/06Z TAF Period An upper level ridge of high pressure centered west of the region will maintain a dry northerly flow aloft across the area through the period with little or no clouds and light surface winds prevailing at all terminals. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ The warming trend continues as the upper level ridge slowly builds in. High temperatures today stay close to or slight above climatological averages. Dry conditions are expected for the afternoon. However, cumulus clouds building in over the higher terrain may spark an isolated shower(<20%). -Wilson As the ridge axis currently over the west coast shifts eastwards through the weekend and next week, warmer air building in aloft will help push temperatures well above averages. By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will warm 5-15 degrees above averages. The hottest days look to be Wednesday/Thursday as the upper level ridge axis translates overhead, with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s for many lower elevation areas and near daily records for some locations, particularly on Thursday. Some locations may have temperatures reaching or exceeding 100F Wednesday/Thursday (particularly in the Helena area). Temperatures may moderate slightly as the upper ridge flattens some Friday into next weekend but are expected to remain well above average with daytime temperatures in the 90s most likely to persist through the weekend across SW MT valleys. Dry condtions are expected throughout the forecast period. However, some upper air disturbances rounding out the ridge may try to produce some isolated light showers/drier thunderstorms, particularly during the weekend. -Wilson/Hoenisch Probability of daytime maximum temperatures reaching 100F or higher: Wed Thu Fri Bozeman 15% 25% 30% Cut Bank 10% 1% 1% Dillon 0% 0% 0% Great Falls 20% 20% 5% Havre 15% 30% 2% Helena 65% 50% 30% Lewistown 0% 1% 1% && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 53 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 58 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 51 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 39 79 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 49 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 54 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 51 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls