000
FXUS65 KTFX 081451
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
851 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures trend warmer today, with the hottest temperatures
arriving for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures cool a touch for
the weekend, but are still forecast to be above average. Chances for
precipitation will remain low through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Ridging aloft will continue to build in today and bring mostly
clear skies with lower elevation temperatures warming well into
the 80s to near 90 this afternoon. The current forecast is
handling the situation well, so no updating will be needed this
morning. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
08/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period under mostly clear skies
and light winds. Density altitude will become a concern as
temperatures trend above average this afternoon. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024/

Through the work week... An upper level ridge presently centered
over the west coast of the CONUS will be the driver of weather this
week across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures continue their
warming trend today and Tuesday as the ridge inches eastward. The
hottest days of the week look to be Wednesday and Thursday once the
ridge axis moves overhead. Highs Wednesday and Thursday look to
climb well into the 90`s at most lower elevation areas, with triple
digits in the cards in areas prone to the hottest temperatures such
as the Helena Valley. Overnight lows to look to fall into the 60`s
for most Wednesday into Thursday, offering brief relief from the
hottest temperatures. Those with flexible outdoor plans are urged to
move them to the morning hours when temperatures will not be as hot.

As the ridge axis slumps southeastward late in the week, flow aloft
becomes westerly, with embedded waves traversing through this flow.
Most of this energy looks to stay to the north of the region though,
keeping impacts minimal. There are scenarios where these systems
slide a bit further south late week and bring a small opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms near the International Border, but
these are not favored at the moment.

The weekend into early next week... Forecast models and their
ensembles favor warmer than average temperatures persisting into the
weekend as the upper level ridge persists across the west. Moisture
rounding the western periphery of the ridge will allow for an
outside chance for a shower or thunderstorm this weekend across
Southwest Montana, though those chances are low at this time. The
chance for 0.10" of rain across Southwest Montana this weekend only
peaks around 20% or so.

There is a bit more uncertainty heading into early next week, though
southwesterly flow will look to maintain low end chances for showers
and thunderstorms across primarily Southwest Montana. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  91  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  95  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  55  91  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  42  83  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  53  89  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  61  92  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  56  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls