941
FXUS65 KTFX 162337
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
537 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and mostly dry weather continues for the foreseeable future
as upper level ridging remains parked over the area. A few pop up
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, but these
will bring little rain, even to those who find themselves directly
under the showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Warm and mostly dry weather continues with just a few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms each day

-In addition to the warmth, smoke from fires near and far will
continue to push into Montana over the coming days, bringing
periods of reduced air quality

Short term (through Friday)... Upper level ridging will continue
to persist across the Western United States over the next few
days, keeping warm and dry weather conditions in place. Highs
through the end of the work week will generally be in the low to
mid 90s with RH values dipping into the teens and low 20s for much
of the area each afternoon. Even with the dry air, a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will pop up each afternoon,
with a few of these showers producing locally gusty outflow winds
to 30 or 40 mph at times. While severe weather is not expected at
this time, we will have to watch for some of the storms to be on
the dry side, potentially producing some lightning outside of
where the storms produce rainfall, increasing the risk for some
new fire starts or holdover fires that could ignite over the
coming days. Speaking of fire, we will also have some smoke
continue to work into the area from fires in Montana and
Washington, resulting in periods of reduced air quality.

Extended (Friday through next Tuesday)... The upper level ridge
currently overhead will not move much during the extended period
either, resulting in a continuation of the warm and mostly dry
weather into early next week. With little change in the overall
weather pattern, expect temperatures to not change much early next
week, with continued chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day. We may have to watch the middle of next
week for an increase in the heat as an upper level low pushes into
the Pacific Northwest, which could help amplify the ridge
overhead, but much uncertainty remains with this setup at this
time. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
17/00Z TAF Period

The concerns over this TAF period include isolated showers or
thunderstorms early this evening near terrain, reduced slantwise
visibility due to smoke through the TAF period, and another
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening was far
too low to warrant any mention in TAFs. Additionally, low confidence
in timing and location for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
precluded precipitation mention in TAFs. As always in the summer,
density altitude concerns will exist. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  94  64  93 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  56  92  60  90 /  10   0  20  20
HLN  60  98  64  99 /   0  10  10  10
BZN  55  94  57  95 /   0  10  10  10
WYS  44  83  44  83 /  10  30  10  20
DLN  52  90  55  92 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  61  94  63  94 /   0   0  10  30
LWT  56  88  60  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls