Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
795 FXXX10 KWNP 131231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jul 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2024 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 03-06UT 1.00 3.67 3.67 06-09UT 1.00 3.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.00 2.33 2.67 12-15UT 1.67 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 1.67 3.00 2.67 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 13 and 14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 15 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly favorable location exhibited by AR 3738. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 07 2024 2231 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2024 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 15 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly favorable location exhibited by AR 3738.