Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
763 FXXX10 KWNP 051231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jul 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 05-Jul 07 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 05-Jul 07 2024 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 00-03UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.33 0.67 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 0.67 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2024 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 01 2024 1102 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2024 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 05-07 Jul.