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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
127 FXUS62 KTBW 072353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a swath of dry air aloft pushing into central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, this kept much of the area rain free today, with the majority of convection occurring along and west of Interstate 75. Isolated showers and a few storms are continuing to linger along sea breeze and outflow boundaries, with mainly rain free conditions expected to return in the next couple of hours. Rain chances were trimmed back for the next few hours to keep up with radar trends. No other changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Isolated showers and storms are continuing to linger around area TAF sites, but are expected to dissipate by around 01-02z. Mainly VFR conditions will then hold through Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will shift onshore and continue to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours, impacting area terminals at times through the early evening. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure is expected to remain over the E Gulf waters with generally light winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week with no headlines expected. Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for mariners. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns expected with the warm and humid summertime conditions continuing with light winds and afternoon seabreezes. The light flow will again keep dispersion index values fairly low. Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 92 80 90 / 30 70 30 70 FMY 79 93 79 92 / 20 50 10 50 GIF 78 95 77 91 / 20 70 20 70 SRQ 79 92 80 91 / 20 60 30 50 BKV 76 94 76 90 / 30 70 40 70 SPG 83 92 83 91 / 30 70 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis