095
FXUS62 KTBW 140725
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The ridge axis is currently situated across northern Florida leading
to southeasterly flow across the region for the next couple days.
For today and into early next week, storm activity looks to bubble
up along sea breeze boundaries just inland. Showers and storms will
move inland slightly before the east coast sea breeze catches up to
the convection late in the day and pushes it back west. Steering
flow will remain light, so heavy downpours and localized heavy
rainfall amounts will be possible under the stronger storms.

By mid week, the ridge axis will shift slightly south in response to
troughing across the Eastern U.S. With ridging overhead, neutral
flow will be in place through the end of the week. This will lead to
rain and storm development being driven primarily by sea breeze and
outflow boundaries and boundary collisions. Storm motion will remain
slow, so locally heavy rainfall will continue to be possible.

Afternoon highs through the forecast period will remain near or just
above average with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s
each afternoon. With ample moisture, dewpoints will reach into
the mid to upper 70s leading to feels like temperatures between
100-105 during the afternoon hours. Be sure to drink plenty of
water and take proper precautions if out in the sun this week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light easterly winds expected into the morning hours turning on
shore by early afternoon. Convection will develop near the coast
after 18Z with brief MVFR/IFR conditions, but will shift inland by
the late afternoon time frame. Lingering showers will come to an end
and winds will shift back to the east by 01/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Ridging just to our north will keep our winds out of the southeast
through early next week. Light flow is expected through the period
with winds remaining below 10 knots. Storms will push west into
coastal waters each day during the late afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Elevated humidity and daily rain chances will keep fire weather
concerns at bay through the period. Light flow will lead to low
dispersions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  94  79 /  70  50  70  40
FMY  95  77  95  78 /  70  50  70  30
GIF  96  77  97  78 /  70  50  70  20
SRQ  93  77  94  78 /  70  50  60  50
BKV  95  74  94  75 /  70  50  70  40
SPG  93  82  94  83 /  70  50  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Fleming