135
FXUS62 KTBW 140020
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

No changes made to the existing forecast, as mainly areas of rain
remain over primarily central and southern zones, along with some
thunderstorm activity lingering near the Tampa Bay area. This
activity should gradually diminish as the evening progresses, with
partly cloudy skies and light winds settling in overnight with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Ridging is now situated just to the our north. This is giving us a
light south to southeast flow across the area. This regime normally
favors storms on the west coast of Florida as the easterly seabreeze
moves across the state quickly. This regime looks to stay in place
through Tuesday.

As we go into our Wednesday the ridge starts to shift south in
response to a cold front will be pushing through parts of the
southeast. This will result in mostly neutral flow on Wednesday
before switching southwesterly on Thursday and Friday. This should
favor storms inland and on the east coast of Florida with the
west coast staying mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Lingering convection this evening affecting TPA/PIE with VCTS and
most of the remaining terminals with RA/VCSH over the next few
hours with potential brief sub-VFR conditions, then diminishing
after around 02Z or so. Light winds and VFR through tonight into
the morning before afternoon convection develops with potential
brief MVFR/IFR conditions, with somewhat lower chances at TPA/PIE
than remaining terminals, however activity expected to develop
inland a bit into the evening with some chances of migrating back
toward coastal locations/terminals during the evening before
diminishing into the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Ridging just to our north will keep our winds out of the southeast
through next Wednesday. We are looking at some pretty light flow
with winds generally staying below 10 knots. The best chance of
storms each day will in the evening hours as storms star to push
off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  79  93 /  50  70  40  60
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  40  70  30  60
GIF  77  94  77  96 /  50  70  20  60
SRQ  77  92  77  95 /  40  70  40  50
BKV  75  93  75  95 /  40  70  40  60
SPG  81  91  82  95 /  50  70  50  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close