462
FXUS62 KTBW 181932
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The Atlantic ridge axis remains in place across the central Florida
peninsula with scattered to numerous convection expected to continue
to develop through the remainder of the day along the sea breeze
collision and additional boundary collisions that develop. While a
ribbon of drier air continues to linger across central FL, this
continues to gradually scour out as deeper moisture continues to
advect in from the south. This narrow region of drier air may limit
precipitation coverage somewhat particularly north of Tampa Bay
where the sea breeze collision will occur further inland compared to
southern interior areas where the collision will occur near the I-75
corridor. Recent CAMs show this general trend with activity
increasing in coverage southeast of Tampa Bay across southern
interior areas and southwest FL and generally less across portions
of the Nature Coast. The main concern with the activity the
remainder of the day will be minor flooding mainly in poor drainage
or urban areas given slow and erratic storm motions, though can`t
completely rule out some isolated stronger downburst winds either.
Otherwise, any activity from today tapers off by mid to late evening
with the loss of diurnal heating with mainly dry conditions
overnight across land areas but the land breeze may support activity
over the adjacent Gulf waters.

Friday should feature a similar pattern with another round of
scattered to numerous convection as the low level flow generally
remains southeasterly as the Atlantic ridge axis continues in place
across central FL. This will once again favor a sea breeze collision
along the west coast of the FL peninsula particularly for areas
south of I-4, though the sea breeze will spread further inland in
areas to the north with locally torrential rainfall and minor
flooding being the primary concern. By the weekend, it appears that
the ridging aloft builds in from the east and this will shift the
surface ridge axis northward with the southeasterly low level flow
continuing to become further established. This would of course
continue to favor higher rain chances across the western half of
peninsula with greatest precipitation coverage during the late
afternoon and evening hours, though models also show a plume of dust
associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) may also move through by
the weekend. Should this materialize, there could at least be
several pockets of drier air move through at times to at least lower
rain chances occasionally, but there should be enough deeper
moisture in place to maintain chance/likely PoPs in the forecast for
now.

By early to mid week, models then show deeper moisture increasing
across the area as a mid level inverted trough moves across the
Bahamas and then eventually the Florida peninsula. While it appears
that the Saharan dust may still be lingering, PoPs are generally on
an increasing trend early to mid week as forcing for ascent could
increase depending on the track of this feature. In addition, this
feature may also bring enough cloud cover with the higher rain
chances to potentially bring a slight decrease in temperatures and
the overall heat risk into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
day but occasional restrictions may occur at times as scattered
showers and storms increase in coverage through this evening. Any
precipitation activity across the area will then taper off
overnight with winds becoming light/VRB. Winds then shift to
mainly SE by Friday morning until switching onshore with the sea
breeze by Friday afternoon with additional scattered storms
possible again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Atlantic high pressure will keep mostly southerly winds in place
through the remainder of the week, though winds will shift onshore
during the day as the sea breeze spreads inland. Southeasterly
flow then develops area-wide by the weekend and into early next
week as the surface ridge axis shifts northward with wind speeds
generally remaining 10 kts or less. Other than occasional showers
and thunderstorms producing locally hazardous seas at times, no
marine headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Southeasterly flow will generally be in place through the
remainder of the week with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms as the sea breeze spreads inland, though winds will
become onshore at the coast with the sea breeze. Overall, the fire
danger remains low as relative humidity values generally remain
above 50 percent and wind speeds remain below critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  93 /  30  70  40  70
FMY  77  93  78  94 /  40  70  30  70
GIF  77  95  77  95 /  40  70  20  70
SRQ  78  93  78  93 /  40  70  40  70
BKV  75  95  75  94 /  30  70  40  70
SPG  82  93  82  93 /  40  70  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard