396
FXUS62 KTAE 081744
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tweaks were made mostly to today`s rain chances. For this
morning, PoPs were trimmed to primarily account for isolated
maritime convection. A blend of the latest NBM was used with the
inherited afternoon forecast to slightly increased inland PoPs.
Convective initiation is still expected along the seabreeze zone,
focusing activity across the I-10 corridor/FL Big Bend, then
spreading inland thereafter. The 12Z HRRR depicts this evolution.

The main concerns are continued hazardous heat and pockets of
heavy rain from thunderstorms thanks to an unstable/tropical
airmass in place amidst weak steering flow. Balloon data from the
nearby 12Z KJAX sounding has 2.35" Precipitable Water values,
SB/MUCAPE around 2600 J/kg, and 700 J/kg of DCAPE fostered by a
small pocket of mid-level dry air. As such, instances of nuisance
and/or flash flooding are possible in addition to strong/gusty
winds. A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide as feels-like
temperatures should sore healthily above triple digits prior to
convective cool-off.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

There was little change to the previous forecast for today. Deep
layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along
with some ridging aloft. Precipitable water values at or above 2
inches are expected again for most of the area. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along leftover mesoscale surface boundaries and the sea
breeze. Weak steering flow coupled with the tropical environment
will lead to pockets of locally heavy rain with isolated flash
flooding possible. Convection will gradually diminish after sunset
but may linger a few hours into the night. Another hot afternoon is
expected with peak heat index values generally between 106-112.
Thus, a heat advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

On Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl will trek northeast
as an upper trough swings down to the Southeast with Beryl phasing
in with the mean flow. The upper trough / remnants of Beryl are
expected to miss out region, though an upper low will move in from
the Atlantic bringing ample moisture with it. PWATs Tuesday
afternoon appear to reach 2-2.3" areawide, perhaps as high as 2.5".
As such, a large swath of 70% PoPs are in the forecast as numerous
afternoon thunderstorms appear possible. With PWATs as high as the
aforementioned range, some locally heavy downpours appear possible,
with some localized flooding possible as well, especially if the
storms slow down and/or train over urban areas. Heat indices on
Tuesday will flirt with heat advisory criteria, particularly within
our FL counties, though some uncertainty as to when storms may
form remains. If storms form earlier, then heat indices greater
than 108 may not be realized.

As the upper trough moves through, a "cold front" will move across
the region which will serve to mix out some of the moisture across
the area, particularly across our SE AL counties and portions of our
SW GA counties. However, PWATs still appear high (2-2.3") across our
FL counties which is represented by the higher PoPs (50-70%). This
may also hinder heat indices from reaching as high as they have been
as of late across our AL and GA counties.

Highs will generally remain in the mid 90s with overnight lows in
the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

As the aforementioned cold front passes through, PWATs
will drop across the region to less than 2", with PoPs dropping
across the area as a result. This will last through Friday with PoPs
expected to increase once again as more moisture begins to enter the
area.

Temperatures, however, will feel somewhat better following the
passage of this cold front. Dewpoints across our FL counties will
generally remain in the low to mid 70s, though upper 60s dewpoints
appear possible across our SE AL and SW GA counties which would
provide some relief from the mugginess as of late. It will still
feel hot across the region, with mid to upper 90s expected each day,
though the lower dewpoints might make it feel somewhat "bearable".

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The TAFs look to be on track. Cumulus clouds have bubbled up
across the region, with some light radar returns starting to light
up. Expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, which will lead to reduced cigs and vis at time. Rain
chances beginning to dwindle around sunset, with perhaps some
lingering after sunset for a few hours. Then VFR conditions should
prevail. Tomorrow morning, we could see a surge of moisture come
in a touch earlier. Added VCTS to KDHN, KECP, and KTLH mainly
after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting east to SE winds 5-10 kts with
1-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 7 seconds late this morning.
Beryl made landfall along the Central TX Gulf Coast at 4AM CDT/5AM
EDT. The main impact will be continued long-period southerly
swells.

From CWF Synopsis...Winds will remain generally light our of the
west southwest, increasing somewhat Tuesday through Wednesday
before becoming light once again. Seas will remain 2 to 4 feet as
Beryl moves further inland over Eastern Texas with long-period
southerly swells lingering into mid-week. Conditions diminish
thereafter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each
evening through the morning hours. The latter may produce
waterspouts at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Generally isolated and scattered thunderstorms are expected
each day as a moist unstable airmass remains situated over the
region. There are no immediate hydrological concerns, though some of
these storms may possess locally heavy rainfall which could produce
localized flash flooding, particularly over urban areas. There are
also no riverine concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  92  77  93 /  30  90  20  70
Panama City   80  90  80  90 /  30  70  40  70
Dothan        76  93  76  92 /  30  80  10  50
Albany        76  94  77  93 /  40  80  10  60
Valdosta      76  93  76  93 /  40  90  20  70
Cross City    77  90  77  91 /  40  90  40  70
Apalachicola  81  89  80  89 /  50  80  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Worster