517
FXUS62 KTAE 060155
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
955 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No significant changes to the forecast were needed this evening,
so only made adjustment to rain chances for the rest of tonight,
to account for recent trends. This amounted to an increase in
rain chances for some.

Otherwise, the long-period swell from Beryl seemed to abruptly
arrive on our Gulf beaches late this afternoon, with quick
development of breakers and wave sets. Rip current risk will be
high for the rest of this holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

While an upper level trough centered across the upper Mississippi
valley will remain just far enough removed from the region that
forcing for ascent will be minimal for robust shower and
thunderstorm activity. While forcing for ascent will be minimal,
PWATs will generally be in the 2.0-2.5 inch range across the region.
PWATs this high will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm
convection across the entire region on Saturday. Any thunderstorms
that do develop will likely become outflow dominant through the late
afternoon and evening hours. While storms are not expected to be
severe, a few strong wind gusts from some of the more robust storms
are expected with DCAPE values in the 800-1000 J/Kg range. With
PWATs in this 2-2.5 inch range, there will be the threat for
localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban
environments with any slow moving, back building, or training
thunderstorms. Outside of the rain potential, temperatures look to
be hot once again, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
areawide. This combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will
lead to widespread 108-112 degree heat index values tomorrow. Given
this threat, another areawide Heat Advisory has been issued for all
of our Florida, Georgia, and Alabama zones. Heat sensitive folks
should take precautions when working outdoors on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Shower and thunderstorms chances remain elevated through the weekend
thanks to a moist airmass in place. Temperatures each night only
drop into the middle 70s before rebounding into the lower to middle
90s for highs Sunday afternoon. Heat indices are forecast to remain
in and around Heat Advisory criteria, or around 108 degrees, Sunday
afternoon.

A resilient H5 ridge will remain overhead despite a trough moving
through the Great Lakes. Usually being under the center of an H5
ridge means suppressed shower and thunderstorm chances. However,
precipitable water values (PWATs) over 2" combined with a
weakening cold front and daytime heating will allow showers and
storms to develop during the day Sunday. Any showers and storms
should wane around sunset Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Overall, not much change is expected in the day-to-day forecast next
week. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain highest in the
afternoons with daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s with lows
in the middle to upper 70s.

A stubborn H5 ridge remains overhead most of next week as a Tropical
Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) attempts to move in from the
Atlantic later in the forecast period. This could help slightly
suppress shower and thunderstorm development ahead of it while
enhancing rain chances as it moves west of the region. Either way,
PWATs over 2" remain in place and should lead to showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories may be
needed during the work week as dew points remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Thunderstorms near TLH will dissipate early in the period. A few
storms cannot be ruled out around DHN through 02Z. Otherwise,
conditions will be VFR overnight and through the morning with the
exception of a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD around
sunrise. Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected Saturday afternoon and these are indicated at all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A few showers and storms are possible the next few days, mainly
during the overnight and morning hours. Westerly to southwesterly
winds are expected to prevail, with a slight uptick in winds by
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. A long period
swell from Tropical Cyclone Beryl is now moving across the
northeast Gulf waters, and these swell will continue into the
weekend before subsiding next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

With an extremely moist airmass continuing to remain in place over
the region, there will be 50-70% PoP chances the next couple of days
areawide. Transport winds look to remain out of the south/southwest
through the weekend at around 5-10 mph. While temperatures will be
hot in the mid to upper 90s, mixing heights look to top out at
around 4500-5000 ft. With the moist airmass in place; however, there
are no immediate fire weather concerns through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into next week
thanks to a moist summer environment in place. While widespread
heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy
rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash
flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in
areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. No
riverine flooding is anticipated the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  77  94 /  30  60  20  60
Panama City   79  91  80  91 /  20  50  20  50
Dothan        76  95  76  94 /  50  60  30  60
Albany        76  95  76  92 /  50  60  30  60
Valdosta      77  95  76  94 /  30  60  30  60
Cross City    76  95  77  93 /  30  50  20  60
Apalachicola  79  90  80  89 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Saturday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Reese