282
FXUS62 KTAE 041425
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1025 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The heat advisory has been expanded area-wide today due to the
prolonged nature of this heat wave and the extra vulnerability
with the July 4th holiday. Otherwise, the previous forecast is
generally on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper ridge remains situated over the southeast through the
fourth of July with a moist and unstable airmass at the surface.
Afternoon thunderstorms will be driven by the seabreeze and perhaps
airmass thunderstorms in our SE AL and SW GA counties as no synoptic
forcing mechanisms appear evident today. As such, a later start in
convective activity appears possible today compared to the past few
days. With delayed convection, temperatures are expected to reach
and/or exceed heat advisory criteria as there will be less
thunderstorm coverage during the onset of peak heating that will
cool the air down. Decided to issue a heat advisory covering all of
our FL counties, all of SE AL, and southernmost tier of SW GA
counties as heat indices will range from 108-111 across the
aforementioned areas. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light
and loose clothing, and limit time outdoors today.

High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this
afternoon with lows in the upper 70s this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Currently, occasionally IFR visibilities and ceilings are being
observed at KDHN, KABY, and KVLD with KTLH likely following soon.
Conditions will improve to VFR following 13-14z with VCTS
beginning around 18-19z. Highest confidence in TSRA at KDHN, KTLH,
and KVLD with some uncertainty surrounding storms close enough to
the terminals of KECP and KABY this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
morning. Increased nocturnal and early morning precipitation
returns for the weekend due to the diurnal land breeze
circulation. Winds will generally fluctuate from the south to
west, with winds increasing a touch early next week. A long
period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive Friday and gradually
subside over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Conditions are expected to remain moist with high rain chances
through the weekend keeping fire weather concerns low. The only
immediate concerns at this time are low dispersions across portions
of SW GA today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

No major changes to the forecast. Daily showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the next week or so, and with the tropical
airmass in place, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Widespread
flooding isn`t expected, but nuisance flooding remains possible
especially over saturated, poor drainage, and urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  77  95  77 /  60  20  60  10
Panama City   91  79  91  79 /  40  10  50  10
Dothan        94  76  95  76 /  50  20  70  20
Albany        94  77  94  77 /  60  20  60  20
Valdosta      93  76  95  76 /  60  20  60  20
Cross City    94  76  93  75 /  60  30  50  10
Apalachicola  90  79  89  79 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR