313
FXUS64 KSJT 061759 CCB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Cooler today, with isolated to scattered convection possible
this afternoon...

Low level flow will be from the east/southeast today, which will
result in cooler temperatures across the area. In fact,
temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this
time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s,
although a few mid 90s will occur across the Concho Valley.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
primarily this afternoon during peak heating, with the best chance
across our southern counties. Convection will end by early
evening, with dry conditions expected overnight. Lows tonight will
be in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Low level south-southwesterly flow quickly will increase on
Sunday as shortwave ridging nudges in from the west. This will
result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees under southerly winds and mostly sunny skies.

Models bring another front down into the Big Country late Sunday
evening. A shortwave trough will also dive down into the Southern
Plains on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible from Sunday evening into Monday as the
aforementioned front works its way through area. Meanwhile, the
latest track forecast for Tropical Storm Beryl continues to keep
the remnants to the east of our area after the cyclone makes
landfall somewhere near Matagorda Bay. This unfortunately means
that we`ll miss out on any significant rainfall associated with
Beryl. Have continued to trend PoPs down for Tuesday through
Thursday although cannot rule out a few showers and storms mainly
across our eastern counties. Otherwise, temperatures will run a
little cooler on Monday and Tuesday behind the front but will
climb back into the mid to upper 90s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the southern third of our area, with isolated
convection farther north into the Concho Valley and Heartland.
Localized gusty winds are possible in the showers and storms and
with outflow boundaries emanating from the convection. Brief
visibility and ceiling reductions are possible in the locally heavy
rain accompanying the showers and storms. The KSOA and KJCT TAF
sites are most likely to be affected, and carrying Tempo groups for
those sites this afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight
and Sunday.
Patchy low cloud development could occur 12Z-15Z Sunday over parts
of the I-10 corridor, and this could potentially result in MVFR
ceilings at KSOA and KJCT. Southeast winds will veer to south
overnight. Increased south or south-southwest winds are expected
by mid-to-late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  73  98  72 /  20  10   0  20
San Angelo  95  73 101  74 /  30  20   0  10
Junction    93  72  97  72 /  50  20  10   0
Brownwood   91  71  96  72 /  20  10  10  10
Sweetwater  93  74 100  73 /  20  10  10  20
Ozona       92  71  97  73 /  30  20   0   0
Brady       90  71  94  72 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...19