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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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697 FXUS64 KSJT 121815 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 One look at the 500mb analysis this morning tells us that there is little, if any, change from this time yesterday. At the upper- levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas. Once again, 850mb temperatures should range from 20-23 deg C. This should translate to yet another day of temperatures ranging from 100-104 degrees this afternoon. Despite the dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat index values should remain below 105 degrees for most areas today. The only slight difference from yesterday is that some clouds are possible this morning, as evidenced by the developing stratus deck over the Hill Country on satellite imagery. However, any cloud cover over the southern tier of counties should burn off by mid-morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight chances being across parts of the Big Country. By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the 100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Patchy stratus is possible across the Hill Country Tuesday morning, but should remain south of the sites. Gusty south to southeast winds will drop below 10 knots this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 75 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...Daniels