158
FXUS64 KSJT 110519
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across our
southeast counties this afternoon and have added in a mention of
thunder for these areas this afternoon and early evening. Expect
this activity to quickly dissipate this evening. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Thursday, an upper level ridge
will remain centered across the western CONUS with an inverted
trough across South Texas. Although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon, mainly across
our southeast counties closest to the aforementioned upper level
trough, mainly dry conditions are forecast across the region. Highs
will be near seasonal normals, in the mid to near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A fairly large upper level high will be centered over Utah on
Friday, and over the Utah/Colorado border Saturday. A weak inverted
trough will shift northwest over part of the Rio Grande Valley, and
will extend from our area into part of northern Mexico. With an
increase in moisture, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday. This will be
mainly in the afternoon hours, and the best rain chances will be
Saturday in our southern counties. At this time, conservatively
carrying slight chance PoP mainly south of a Sonora-Menard-Mason
line Friday afternoon, and generally south of an Ozona to San Angelo
to Richland Springs line Saturday afternoon. Possible thunderstorm
hazards include lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
With increased cloud cover, temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler Saturday and to a lesser extent Friday.

Seeing some model indication that the inverted trough may hold
together and shift across our central and northern counties on Sunday.
May have a few associated few showers and thunderstorms Sunday,
but confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast
for Sunday. For the first part of next week, hotter temperatures
are expected Monday-Wednesday with increasing 850mb temperatures
and proximity of the upper level high. Daily highs are expected to
be in the upper 90s to 101 in the Big Country and Concho Valley,
and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A few isolated storms southwest of KSOA have dissipated early
this morning, with VFR skies prevailing. These VFR conditions
should continue through Thursday. Southeast winds will prevail and
will be occasionally gusty at time during daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  72  96 /   0  10   0  20
Junction    71  93  71  91 /   0  20  10  20
Brownwood   70  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  73  99  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       69  93  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Brady       71  94  71  91 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07