100
FXUS64 KSJT 081829
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
129 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and tonight,
  mainly in the Big Country, with dangerous lightning and
  localized flooding possible.

- Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again
  Wednesday afternoon, mainly in the Hill Country.

- Drier Thursday and Friday, with storm chances returning this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A quiet early morning across the area. However, thunderstorms are
moving southeast across the South Plains near Lubbock. The storms
should dissipate in the next few hours before reaching our area.
Looking for a more typical summer day across the area. However,
the Hi-Res models are still indicate isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of the area late this
afternoon and early evening. The main hazards will be dangerous
lightning and localized flooding. Highs will be mid 80s to mid
90s. For Tonight, looks mainly quiet with any convection
dissipating by 03Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...Rain chances return this weekend...

Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday, as upper ridging
builds in from the west increasing subsidence over the region.
Precipital water amounts (atmospheric moisture) fall back to
around 1 inch.

This weekend, however, an upper trough or weakness develops over
West Central Texas...as the upper ridge weakens over the West,
with a weak broad upper ridge develops over the Southeast US. This
will allow at least isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning
Saturday. At this time, there does not appear to be any organized
storms/weather in the models. However, as precipital water amounts
increase to around 1.5 inches, even isolated storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall. This setup continues into Monday, but by
Tuesday, a building upper ridge over Mississippi Valley ends rain
chances for West Central Texas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

MVFR CIGs around 2000-3000 ft AGL possible between 10Z and 15Z
Wed across the I-10 corridor. Also, isolated SHRA/TSRA possible
between 22Z today and 03Z Wed, which would bring brief IFR/LIFR
conditions in heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through 18Z Wed. Winds will continue to
generally be from the southerly direction at around 8-12 KT,
except between 00Z and 14Z Wed when wind speeds will lower by 3-6
KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  94  73  94 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo  72  93  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    71  90  70  91 /   0  20   0  10
Brownwood   71  90  71  91 /  20  30   0   0
Sweetwater  73  95  74  96 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       71  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       71  88  71  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SJH