995
FXUS64 KSJT 181923
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Weak cold front and shortwave responsible for the showers and
storms this morning has pushed south and other than Crockett
County, has exited West Central Texas early this afternoon. Expect
the activity south of Ozona to continue south and out of the area
as well by mid/late afternoon. Visible satellite is showing some
more cu and some additional convection developing across the
Metroplex where dewpoints remain near 70, but dewpoints have
dropped into the 50s across the Big Country. High res CAMs
continue to be dry across the area for tonight and Friday.

Front isn`t going to make it much farther south before stalling,
so at least some isolated convection is possible across the
Edwards Plateau near Del Rio on Friday afternoon, but given the
northerly steering flow, this should all stay south of the area.

Wet soil in some locations may help keep temperatures down a few
degrees on Friday afternoon, but most areas are still going to see
a decent climb. May not hit the 100 degree mark across the western Concho
Valley and Big Country where rain was sparse, but its going to
make a run. Other areas will be closer to the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern
U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on
the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will
linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As
a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on
Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and
help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain
across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility
of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has
outlooked our area for excessive rainfall (Marginal Risk) on
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Area of showers and storms will continue to push south this
afternoon. Will clear the last terminal (KSOA) early this
afternoon and then leave VFR conditions in its wake. WInds will
remain light and generally out of the northeast to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  70  97  71  99 /   0  10   0  30
Junction    71  94  70  96 /   0  10   0  20
Brownwood   69  92  68  95 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  71  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  30
Ozona       70  95  71  95 /   0  10   0  20
Brady       70  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07