839
FXUS64 KSJT 062001
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
occurring this afternoon over the southern half of our area. The
airmass is moderately unstable and moist (precipitable water values
between 1.6 and 1.9 inches). The main storm hazards are lightning,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Given the weak steering flow and
slow movement with the convection, heavy rain could cause ponding of
water on roads and result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas.
The showers and storms will dissipate this evening, and skies will
be mostly clear tonight. Per the boundary layer moisture fields,
patchy low cloud development early Sunday morning is anticipated
over some of our southern counties (primarily Sutton and Kimble).
Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s
possible in the Big Country.

Our area will be under rather weak northwest flow aloft tonight and
Sunday. A strong upper level ridge will be over the west coast, and
an upper level trough will be centered over mainly the northern and
central Plains. Wind speeds will be higher on Sunday with increased
surface pressure gradient across our area. South or south-southwest
winds in the morning with slight backing to the south-southeast in
the afternoon. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb thermal ridge
expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter on Sunday.
Highs are expected to be 100-103 degrees in much of the Concho
Valley and Big Country, and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
Expect any rain chances to be north of our area prior to 7 PM
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The next chance for some precipitation will develop across the Big
Country Sunday night as another cold front is poised to track
across the area Sunday evening into Monday. Models continue to
show this feature coinciding with an upper-level shortwave trough
tracking across the region Monday, which can aid in the
development of some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from Sunday evening through Monday night. Meanwhile, models
continue to keep the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl mostly to
our east after the system makes landfall over the Texas Gulf
Coast. This track will likely lead to the bulk of significant
precipitation staying east of our area, and less precipitation for
much of West Central Texas. The NBM has continued to trend
precipitation chances down for Tuesday through Thursday, although
we cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing along or
over our eastern most counties.

As for temperatures across the area, slightly cooler conditions
are possible for Monday and Tuesday after the passage of the cold
front, ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures will then
climb back into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week
and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the southern third of our area, with isolated
convection farther north into the Concho Valley and Heartland.
Localized gusty winds are possible in the showers and storms and
with outflow boundaries emanating from the convection. Brief
visibility and ceiling reductions are possible in the locally heavy
rain accompanying the showers and storms. The KSOA and KJCT TAF
sites are most likely to be affected, and carrying Tempo groups for
those sites this afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight
and Sunday. Patchy low cloud development could occur 12Z-15Z
Sunday over parts of the I-10 corridor, and this could potentially
result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA and KJCT. Southeast winds will
veer to south overnight. Increased south or south-southwest winds
are expected by mid-to-late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  99  72  89 /  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  72 102  74  96 /  10   0  10  20
Junction    71  97  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
Brownwood   71  96  72  90 /  10   0  10  20
Sweetwater  74 101  73  89 /  10  10  20  30
Ozona       71  98  73  94 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       71  96  72  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19