597
FXUS64 KSHV 080834
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
334 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl is beginning to move inland across the mid-Texas
coast this morning. Beryl will move north and gradually weaken
over southeast Texas. As it weakens and the wind field expands,
much of the ArkLaTex will experience wind speeds exceeding 20 mph
with portions of Deep East Texas possibly bordering on Tropical
Storm force wind speeds of near 40 mph. Because of the short-lived
nature of these higher winds will handle the elevated wind speeds
with a Wind Advisory based on coordination with neighbors.

Storm total QPF with Beryl remains elevated across mainly east and
northeast Texas as well as southwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma mainly along the path of the central core of Beryl. Some
locations could experience rainfall totals as high as 6 inches
across portions of northeast Texas with isolated higher amounts.
Ongoing Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to add Nevada county.
Otherwise, no additional adjustments to the Flash Flood Watch
needed at this time.

Increased shear along the northeast quadrant of Beryl within an
unstable airmass will support a heightened tornado threat across
much of the ArkLaTex today, mainly during the afternoon into the
early evening hours.

Further east, across portions of north Louisiana, a combination of
high humidity values and highs in the lower 90s could drive heat
index values to near 105 degrees. However, not expecting
conditions to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time.

Beryl is forecast to shift northeast across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley late Monday night into Tuesday with conditions gradually
improving thereafter. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A fairly stagnant setup expected through much of the long-term
period characterized by a broad upper-level trough firmly
established across the central CONUS and an upper-ridge across the
Gulf of Mexico. The upper-trough will support diurnally driven
afternoon convection each day across mainly north Louisiana and
east Texas in association with a weak frontal boundary along the
northern Gulf Coast. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico will allow for temperatures to climb
into the upper 90s along and south of I-20 by late in the work
week into the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures in the
lower 90s across Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a hearty sea breeze this evening is
segmented along I-20 and will continue to diminish over the next
hour. Tropical Storm Beryl is 105mi SSE of Matagorda TX and will
affect us for much of this TAF cycle with wind and rainfall for
our E TX sites after daybreak and edge into our LA terminals in
the afternoon. MVFR/VFR decks for the most part arriving early
along with gusty LL WS020/50-60KT for KLFK initially. Additional
bands of shwrs & TS to affect our sites during Monday. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  74  88  72 /  80  80  40  10
MLU  92  75  90  70 /  50  60  50  10
DEQ  84  67  82  64 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  87  70  85  68 /  80  80  50  10
ELD  89  70  83  66 /  60  70  60  10
TYR  83  70  88  71 /  90  70  30  10
GGG  83  70  87  69 /  90  80  30  10
LFK  82  71  89  71 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for LAZ001-002-010.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24