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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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194 FXUS64 KSHV 151614 RRA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 As of 11:00 AM, temperatures have already reached the upper 80/lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. This, in combination with dew point temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s, sets the stage for hazardous heat this afternoon and a Heat Advisory as a result. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Warmer this morning with mostly clear skies. There is a little more wind areawide from the south mixing temps a bit with mid to upper 70s widespread. It`s 80 downtown Shreveport for the warmest and 73 at Peason Ridge and Alexandria for the coolest, both of which are calm by the way. Dew points like temps ranging all through the 70s and the posted Heat Advisory for today remains for all of our cwa. We fell short as hoped yesterday, but the next few days will see heat advisories. It would be nice to avoid another excessive upgrade, so we will see how the days unfold going forward. Our highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 90s and lows Tuesday again similar to this morning. So far the wind is keeping any fog from forming except for a couple of sites at Mineola and Idabel. Any convection today will remain near the old 500mb weakness across MS and south LA affecting a few of our SE Parishes with a cooling shower. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Little has changed in our long term outlook with an end to the heat and a return to cloudiness and rainfall. The cool front is still headed our way even sooner perhaps with a 1024mb air mass over the midWest early Thursday. The frontal boundary will be shifting the winds in the backdoor with likely PoPs for a day or two and more to come over the weekend with another midWest 1025mb holding the pattern pat. The WPC has indeed settled the ERO down over our neck of the woods on day 4 Thursday into Friday. 1 to 2 inch totals seem reasonable and their day 4 QPF is quite similar. So looking forward to more July rainfall at that time. Until then, the heat will rule the days and then late week and weekend will get our temps back to average and below. The brand new 8 to 14 day outlook from CPC has us in leaning below temps and leaning above precip for just about the rest of this month. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 For the 15/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period with the possible exception of very patchy fog and low stratus at a few sites this morning. However, restrictions remain outside of area terminals at the time of this TAF issuance. Otherwise, cloud cover will be mostly limited to thin cirrus and a returning cu field later on today. Cu field will diminish around sunset with S/SW winds prevailing between 5-10 kts for much of the period, decreasing slightly during the evening/overnight hours. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 97 78 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 96 75 97 77 / 20 10 0 0 DEQ 97 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 97 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19