017
FXUS64 KSHV 162338 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A period of unsettled weather is finally on the horizon, as rain
chances begin to increase into tomorrow evening. These rain
chances will be associated with a deep trough and cold front
dropping south through the midwest. The Heat Advisory that was in
effect for today has been extended through tomorrow, however,
depending on how early the rain and clouds move in, it may not be
needed north of I-30. I did not have confidence in that during my
forecast, so I went ahead and extended it area-wide for simplicy`s
sake. However, I can say that tomorrow will likely be the last
time we need any form of heat headlines for at least the next
week, as upper-level troughing settles in for the long-haul
(thankfully).

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

It`s rare that I get to talk about a "spring like" pattern in
mid-july, but honestly I won`t complain one bit. Considering we`re
likely to get an extended break from the heat during all of this,
I don`t think any of you will complain either. Upper-level ridging
will bulk up to the west, allowing for this deep trough to remain
over the east coast through at least Wednesday of next week.
Various disturbances should ride between the ridge and trough,
allowing for rain chances to remain in for most of the long-term
as well.

The trough will also allow for colder air to filter into the
region, aided by the sustained north flow. Additionally, the
afternoon cloud cover and rain chances will also aid in keeping
afternoon highs below average. There may be a few days here and
there where we sneak into the low-90s, but for the most part,
highs will range in the mid to upper-80s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue through much of not all of the 17/00Z
TAF period. What little cu field that developed this afternoon
will diminish by 01Z this evening, with mostly SKC expected
through the overnight hours (aside from some areas of cirrus
affecting the MLU terminal this evening). Some patchy MVFR cigs
may develop by/after daybreak Wednesday over portions of Deep E TX
into WCntrl LA, and while brief cigs can not be ruled out, a
scattered cu field should develop by late morning/midday
elsewhere. Scattered convection that may develop over portions of
SE OK into Wrn AR just prior to daybreak Wednesday may build SSE
into SW AR by mid and late morning, and thus VCSH was maintained
at TXK through this time frame, although this convection should
diminish by early afternoon as it tried to push into N LA.
However, scattered convection is expected to develop by late
afternoon along a weak cold front as it enters portions of NE TX
into SE OK/SW AR, with confidence high enough to insert VCTS
mention at TYR/TXK only by 23Z, with the remaining terminals
except LFK potentially seeing convection just beyond the end of
this TAF period Wednesday evening. SSW winds 5-8kts will continue
through the TAF period. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  98  75  90 /   0  20  40  70
MLU  76  98  74  90 /   0  20  40  80
DEQ  74  94  70  87 /   0  30  60  50
TXK  78  97  73  89 /   0  20  60  70
ELD  76  97  70  87 /   0  20  50  70
TYR  77  98  74  90 /   0  20  30  60
GGG  76  97  73  90 /   0  20  30  70
LFK  75  96  74  91 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...15