992
FXUS64 KSHV 071848 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No wholesale changes are needed to the forecast package at this
time. Temperatures look on track reach the low to middle 90s
before cloud cover builds in from the south and northwest. Storms
in Oklahoma at this hour are expected to dissipate as they near
our CWA. A band of light rainfall has begun to swing into our
Louisiana parishes, from the south with more rainfall expected to
follow, as showers and storms build north and west into this
afternoon.

Actively contemplating the products which will be necessary to
account for the impacts of Beryl to the ArkLaTex, the first of
which should be issued together with our afternoon forecast
package in a few hours...stay tuned.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and much of tonight,
before conditions begin to deteriorate with the landfall of TS
Beryl along the middle TX coast Monday morning. Cu cigs have
developed early this afternoon across much of E TX, with the cu
field more scattered elsewhere, with scattered convection having
recently developed SE of TYR, which will gradually spread NW
through mid-afternoon. More concentrated convection associated
with the outer bands of Beryl have shifted NW into Deep E TX, and
will affect LFK by or shortly before 20Z, with additional
scattered convection expected to develop and spread N to the I-20
terminals of E TX/N LA between 23-02Z. Gusty winds to near 30kts,
reduced vsbys, and MVFR cigs will be possible in/near the
convection before diminishing, with AC/cirrus cigs lingering
through the evening and overnight hours. However, MVFR cigs are
expected to develop after 06Z Monday over Deep E TX/WCntrl LA,
before developing farther N to the TYR/GGG/SHV terminals by/after
12Z. Others areas of stratocu should develop between 12-15Z across
the remainder of the region, gradually lifting through midday. The
convective bands surrounding the center of Beryl should begin
affecting LFK between 12-16Z, where RA/vsby reductions were added.
Did insert VCSH mention for TYR/GGG by 15-16Z, with the more
impactful cigs/vsbys reductions in RA affecting SHV by/after 18Z.
ESE winds 5-10kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5kts
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  79  90  75 /  30  30  80  80
MLU  93  75  92  74 /  40  30  40  60
DEQ  94  71  86  68 /  10  40  80  80
TXK  97  75  90  71 /  20  40  70  90
ELD  94  74  89  70 /  30  30  60  80
TYR  96  76  87  71 /  20  30  90  80
GGG  96  76  87  72 /  30  20  90  80
LFK  95  76  85  72 /  40  20  90  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15