316
FXUS64 KSHV 071612
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1112 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No wholesale changes are needed to the forecast package at this
time. Temperatures look on track reach the low to middle 90s
before cloud cover builds in from the south and northwest. Storms
in Oklahoma at this hour are expected to dissipate as they near
our CWA. A band of light rainfall has begun to swing into our
Louisiana parishes, from the south with more rainfall expected to
follow, as showers and storms build north and west into this
afternoon.

Actively contemplating the products which will be necessary to
account for the impacts of Beryl to the ArkLaTex, the first of
which should be issued together with our afternoon forecast
package in a few hours... stay tuned.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Instability will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front
to the north and tropical cyclone Beryl that is advancing
northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough across
the Southern Plains will allow for sufficient mixing to limit high
temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Could see an enhanced sea-
breeze boundary lifting north this afternoon which could allow for
scattered convection mainly across east and northeast Texas as
well as north Louisiana.

Beryl to make landfall overnight tonight across the mid to upper
Texas coast. The combination of the approaching tropical cyclone
interacting with the upper-trough and surface boundary will drive
rain chances to likely and near categorical levels across the
ArkLaTex Sunday night into Monday.

Increased shear along the eastern edge of the cyclone as it moves
north across east and northeast Texas will allow for an increased
tornado threat across much of the ArkLaTex on Monday.
Additionally, heavy rainfall with totals from 2 to 4 inches may be
possible across mainly east and northeast Texas as well as
southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the center of circulation
with lesser values elsewhere. Otherwise, with increased cloud
cover and rainfall, temperatures will be much cooler with highs on
Monday in the low to mid 80s along the path of Beryl. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A stagnant broad upper-level trough will remain anchored across
the mid-conus through much of the work-week. A weak lingering
surface boundary in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex will support
widely-scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the region each day. Additionally, a cooler
and drier airmass north of the frontal boundary will allow for
slightly cooler temperatures with highs through much of the work-
week in the mid to upper 80s, gradually increasing into the lower
90s by Friday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across the southern
CONUS. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected during the
weekend with highs creeping into the mid to upper 90s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical cyclone Beryl will allow for increased rain chances
across area terminal this afternoon. Expect VCTS conditions
across most terminals around 07/18Z, continuing through 08/02Z.
Conditions forecast to improve thereafter with ceilings becoming
MVFR across LFK by 08/12Z. Otherwise, southeast winds 5 to 10
knots today to become 5 knots overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  90  75  86 /  20  70  70  70
MLU  75  92  74  89 /  20  40  50  70
DEQ  71  86  68  80 /  50  70  60  70
TXK  75  90  71  84 /  50  60  70  70
ELD  74  89  70  83 /  30  60  60  70
TYR  76  87  71  84 /  20  80  70  60
GGG  76  87  72  85 /  20  80  70  60
LFK  76  85  72  86 /  30  80  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05