615
FXUS63 KSGF 140519
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory today through Monday. Heat index values will
  range from near 100 to 108 degrees each afternoon.

- Cold front will bring 50-60% chances for showers and
  thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis showed the area on the east/northeast periphery of
an upper level high that was centered across the Rockies. This
placement has allowed for disturbances and nocturnal low level
jets to provide precip chances during the last few mornings.
Current precip was winding down however plenty of cloud debris
remains with temps held back in the 70s across central Missouri
to the lower 80s further southwest towards Joplin, Branson and
West Plains.

Rest of Today and Tonight: Back edge of clouds will continue
moving southeast with a late afternoon temperature surge
where sun can prevail. Areas east of Springfield will likely
struggle to climb too far into the 80s with areas west of
Springfield pushing the upper 80s. Dewpoints will continue to
be in the lower 70s creating a muggy afternoon. A warm night is
expected with areas remaining in the lower to middle 70s. The
upper ridge will begin to nudge east tonight with the low level
jet setting up much further north towards Iowa. Therefore any
overnight showers and storms should remain farther north however
did include some 5-10% chances across our far northwest CWA
towards sunrise incase a stray shower can move down.

Sunday: A hot and sunny day looks likely as 850mb temps of
21-23C move into the area from the southwest. NBM guidance and
local 850mb temp climo studies suggest high potential for temps
to reach the middle to upper 90s in most locations. These temps
combined with dews in the upper 60s to lower 70s will create
heat index values between 100-105 degrees with a few locations
in the 106-108 heat index range. Recent rains will likely keep
temps from reaching even higher than forecast however this will
keep dews higher which leads to high confidence in the first
day of excessive heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the
entire are for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monday: Another day of excessive heat is likely with perhaps a
1-2 degree increase in 850mb temps across the area (23-25C).
This will push high temps into the upper 90s across the western
half of the area with perhaps a 100 degree temp across southeast
Kansas. Locations across the eastern ozarks will remain in the
lower 90s. This will send heat index values again in the 100-105
degree range with a few areas in the 106-108 range. The Heat
Index will continue through Monday for the entire area.

Tuesday into Wednesday: The upper level ridge will begin its
suppression to the south as a strong shortwave moves across the
northern plains. A cold front will be in the process of
dropping south during the day and the timing of this will be
critical in determining if another day of excessive heat occurs.
If the front is slow to move down then another day of excessive
heat will occur and the Heat Advisory would need extended for
all or portions of the area. The most likely scenario per the
ensembles at this time is that the front arrives later in the
evening with shower and thunderstorm chances during the evening
and overnight hours. These types of fronts can be difficult to
get too far south therefore it may stall over the area during
the day Wednesday. Precip chances have increased into the 50-60
percent chance during this time and may need increased in future
updates. This could keep highs in the middle 80s on Wednesday
with clouds/precip.

Thursday through Friday: Confidence is high that much cooler
temperatures will arrive underneath northwest flow late next
week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C range. This will
lead to highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Rain
chances look to remain less than 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Weak upper level flow and diffuse surface features will allow
for VFR flight conditions throughout the forecast period. A few
middle to upper clouds will occur especially with daytime
heating. Surface winds will be generally southerly with a
southwesterly component during the day.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch