786
FXUS63 KSGF 101041
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal this weekend followed
  by a warming trend toward 90 degrees by mid-week.

- Slight chance (10-30%) of a shower or sprinkle today across
  southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

- Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday
  morning into Monday. Slight chance of excessive rainfall.

- Additional daily rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Aug
10 2024

Synoptic analysis reveals an upper-level cyclone spinning over
the Lake Superior region with a flattened ridge across the
western CONUS. Earlier convection around the Rockies and
southern High Plains have diminished in intensity as it tracks
east early this morning. While timing as slowed slightly, these
showers may clip portions of southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri this afternoon. Analysis of the 00Z SGF sounding showed
dry low levels despite better moisture aloft, so while most
areas will see plenty of dry time today, a few light showers or
sprinkles will be possible (10-30% chance).

Cloud cover will be a bit more extensive today than yesterday,
which will help keep temperatures suppressed. Highs will
struggle to touch 80 degrees for much of the area, and overnight
lows fall into the mid 50s across the eastern Ozarks to mid
60s farther west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat
Aug 10 2024

The long term forecast will be characterized by several rounds
of rain chances along with increasing temperatures.

Sunday-Monday Precipitation:
By Saturday afternoon, weak shortwave energy will help spark
thunderstorm development along the High Plains into southern
Montana. By early Sunday morning, this activity will track into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms may initially
be strong to severe out west, but will likely diminish in
intensity with eastward extent due to a loss of instability and
a decreasing low-level jet. The remnants may linger into the
afternoon hours across the Missouri Ozarks.

A second round of storms will approach from the northwest Sunday
night into Monday. Medium-range guidance develops a more
prominent shortwave trough embedded within a 40-50 kt mid-level
jet over the Central Plains, potentially aiding in MCS
development. This system will move into the forecast area by
Sunday night and spread eastward through Monday morning.
Coverage of this second round may be more widespread than the
first. Likewise, increased moisture return will push PWATs into
the 1.9-2.0" range, allowing for fairly efficient rainfall
rates.

NBM QPF Probabilities Sunday-Monday:
>0.50 inch: 30% (east) - 75% (west)
>1.00 inch: 20% (east) - 60% (west)
>2.00 inch: 5% (east) - 30% (west)

Given the dry antecedent conditions, any flooding may be hard to
come by, though trends will have to be monitored as we get into
range of the hi-res guidance. The Weather Prediction Center has
outlined portions of our CWA in a Slight risk for excessive
rainfall.

Tuesday-Thursday Precipitation:
Ensembles depict the upper-level ridge out west amplifying and
shifting east into midweek. At the surface, a low pressure
system will be located across the Southern/Central Plains with
an attendent warm front extending eastward. This system is
progged to lift northeast. As it does so, isentropic upglide may
help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. This
pattern shift will also usher in much warmer and more humid air.

MCS potential will likewise continue in this pattern. With the
aforementioned warm front draped across Missouri, shortwave
impulses riding along the ridge may help focus convection along
the boundary on Wednesday and Thursday. And, with northwest
flow aloft parallel to the front, training thunderstorms could
be a potential concern. All of these features would have to
align in both time and space for this potential to be realized,
and there is enough variability among the ensemble guidance to
keep confidence in any details limited at this time. To that
point, the area of greatest PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday have
shifted north slightly compared to earlier forecasts, and
further changes are likely. Nonetheless, WPC has portions of the
CWA outlined for heavy rain potential these days, so trends
will be monitored future forecast packages.

Temperatures:
Confidence in exact daily temperatures is relatively low through
mid-week owing in large part due to the daily rain chances.
Generally, though, a gradual warmup closer to normal is expected
next week as the upper- level ridge shifts east across the
Plains. NBM interquartile ranges of 6-8 degrees are noted
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are likely through much if not all of the TAF
period. Broken mid-level clouds will overspread the region
this morning and last into tonight. A few light showers and
sprinkles will move in with them, though no lightning or significant
reductions to visibility are expected.

Winds will be light and variable through the forecast period,
prevailing out of the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio