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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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786 FXUS63 KSGF 101041 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 541 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal this weekend followed by a warming trend toward 90 degrees by mid-week. - Slight chance (10-30%) of a shower or sprinkle today across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. - Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning into Monday. Slight chance of excessive rainfall. - Additional daily rain chances Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Synoptic analysis reveals an upper-level cyclone spinning over the Lake Superior region with a flattened ridge across the western CONUS. Earlier convection around the Rockies and southern High Plains have diminished in intensity as it tracks east early this morning. While timing as slowed slightly, these showers may clip portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon. Analysis of the 00Z SGF sounding showed dry low levels despite better moisture aloft, so while most areas will see plenty of dry time today, a few light showers or sprinkles will be possible (10-30% chance). Cloud cover will be a bit more extensive today than yesterday, which will help keep temperatures suppressed. Highs will struggle to touch 80 degrees for much of the area, and overnight lows fall into the mid 50s across the eastern Ozarks to mid 60s farther west. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The long term forecast will be characterized by several rounds of rain chances along with increasing temperatures. Sunday-Monday Precipitation: By Saturday afternoon, weak shortwave energy will help spark thunderstorm development along the High Plains into southern Montana. By early Sunday morning, this activity will track into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms may initially be strong to severe out west, but will likely diminish in intensity with eastward extent due to a loss of instability and a decreasing low-level jet. The remnants may linger into the afternoon hours across the Missouri Ozarks. A second round of storms will approach from the northwest Sunday night into Monday. Medium-range guidance develops a more prominent shortwave trough embedded within a 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Central Plains, potentially aiding in MCS development. This system will move into the forecast area by Sunday night and spread eastward through Monday morning. Coverage of this second round may be more widespread than the first. Likewise, increased moisture return will push PWATs into the 1.9-2.0" range, allowing for fairly efficient rainfall rates. NBM QPF Probabilities Sunday-Monday: >0.50 inch: 30% (east) - 75% (west) >1.00 inch: 20% (east) - 60% (west) >2.00 inch: 5% (east) - 30% (west) Given the dry antecedent conditions, any flooding may be hard to come by, though trends will have to be monitored as we get into range of the hi-res guidance. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined portions of our CWA in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall. Tuesday-Thursday Precipitation: Ensembles depict the upper-level ridge out west amplifying and shifting east into midweek. At the surface, a low pressure system will be located across the Southern/Central Plains with an attendent warm front extending eastward. This system is progged to lift northeast. As it does so, isentropic upglide may help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. This pattern shift will also usher in much warmer and more humid air. MCS potential will likewise continue in this pattern. With the aforementioned warm front draped across Missouri, shortwave impulses riding along the ridge may help focus convection along the boundary on Wednesday and Thursday. And, with northwest flow aloft parallel to the front, training thunderstorms could be a potential concern. All of these features would have to align in both time and space for this potential to be realized, and there is enough variability among the ensemble guidance to keep confidence in any details limited at this time. To that point, the area of greatest PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday have shifted north slightly compared to earlier forecasts, and further changes are likely. Nonetheless, WPC has portions of the CWA outlined for heavy rain potential these days, so trends will be monitored future forecast packages. Temperatures: Confidence in exact daily temperatures is relatively low through mid-week owing in large part due to the daily rain chances. Generally, though, a gradual warmup closer to normal is expected next week as the upper- level ridge shifts east across the Plains. NBM interquartile ranges of 6-8 degrees are noted through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions are likely through much if not all of the TAF period. Broken mid-level clouds will overspread the region this morning and last into tonight. A few light showers and sprinkles will move in with them, though no lightning or significant reductions to visibility are expected. Winds will be light and variable through the forecast period, prevailing out of the east. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio