Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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764 FXUS63 KSGF 081126 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 626 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and thunderstorms today (40-60% chance). Higher chances arrive tonight through Tuesday Night (70-90%) especially southeast of Interstate 44. -Flood Watch in effect tonight through Tuesday Night generally along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. 1-3 inches of rainfall expected in this area with localized 4-6 inch totals. Much lower rainfall amounts northwest of I-44. -Marginal risk for a severe storm tonight into Tuesday morning along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. Low chance for damaging winds and/or a brief tornado in this area. -Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with above normal temps returning for the end of the work week. Then the Heat Index will climb back above 100 by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a broad shortwave trough across the central US with ridging across the west. Hurricane Beryl was closing in on the Texas coastline with a northward motion. PW values along the coast were in the 2.2-2.5in range. Locally, we have seen an increase in moisture and instability over the last 24 hours. A front was currently stationary from eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri. Weak low level warm air advection in an uncapped environment was producing some scattered thunderstorms from northeast Oklahoma into central Missouri. Today: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should continue this morning with perhaps a brief break around midday. While a few peaks of sun may occur, clouds will be on the increase from the south. The frontal boundary northwest of the area will begin to slide southeast and latest high res guidance suggests that thunderstorms should begin to develop along the front by mid to late afternoon, somewhere close to the I-44 corridor. These storms will likely be multicells given the relatively weak shear (20-25kts). Lightning and brief gusty winds may occur with this activity. PW values look to increase closer to 1.8in which could lead to heavy rainfall rates and localized flooding. 00z HREF generally supports localized pockets of 0.5 to 1.5in of rainfall during the day today which could prime some of the soils for more widespread rainfall tonight. Tonight through Tuesday Night: Guidance continues to suggest that the remnants of Beryl will move into northeast Texas tonight with a widespread rain shield spreading north towards the area. Highest rain chances are along and south of I-44 tonight after midnight. 00z HREF supports 0.5 to 1.5inches of rainfall by sunrise generally along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. The remnant frontal boundary may also act as focus for renewed rain back closer to I-44 however its uncertain where that front will be if its not overtaken by Beryl. Beryl will continue tracking into Arkansas early Tuesday. This track will allow for a small window spatially and temporally for increased low level helicity in its right front quadrant. 00Z HREF shows mean 0-1km SRH around 100-200m2s2. This could support a few brief, low top, spinning showers and storms that could produce a tornado or two. This potential is low however will need to monitor the Ozark-Howell-Shannon-Oregon county areas for this activity late tonight into early Tuesday morning for this brief threat. As we head through the morning and afternoon Tuesday, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will continue along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. This will occur on the backside of the remnants of Beryl as it moves through southeast Missouri. Rain chances and intensity drop off quickly as one heads west. Rain will be slow to end in the eastern Ozarks but looks to end sometime late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. 00z HREF supports pockets of 2-3 inches of rainfall during the daytime hours Tuesday, especially along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. The HREF currently has a 50-70% chance of at least 3 inches of rainfall in this area. Therefore, 48hr totals may reach 4-6 inches in localized areas and a Flood Watch has been issued for tonight through late Tuesday night given the forecast rainfall and the knowledge of typical flood prone areas of the Missouri Ozarks. Confidence is lowest along the western most tier of counties in the watch as there will be a fairly sharp drop off in rainfall amounts on the western edge. Some locations west of Highway 65 may not even see 1 inch of rainfall. Additional fluctuations in the rainfall totals are still possible therefore updates will be needed today and tonight. It should be noted that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index/Shift of Tails does show the signal for an anomously high rainfall event across our south central Missouri counties. Also of note is the rather cool temperatures during the day Tuesday given the rain and northerly winds. Many areas will remain in the lower to middle 70s for high temps. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Midweek into the weekend: Ensembles continue to support northwest flow Wednesday and Thursday with below average temperatures. While confidence is low, weak energy moving down from the northwest could produce a sprinkle or shower both Wednesday and Thursday. The upper level high out west will then spread east for the end of the week and into the weekend. Much warmer 850mb temps look to spread into the area which supports high temps warming back up into the 90s. Rain chances look to remain below 20 percent. Early Heat Index products from WPC and the NBM indicate the potential for heat indicies to approach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A few thunderstorms will move through this morning and could affect SGF. Otherwise additional showers and storms will redevelop this afternoon and evening at the sites. Overnight, a widespread area of rain and lower flight conditions will spread north into the area with MVFR conditions likely. Winds will remain light and variable. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Record Precipitation: July 9: KSGF: 1.19/1933 KVIH: 2.19/1965 KUNO: 1.27/2015 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for MOZ070-071-081>083-091-092-095>098-103>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield CLIMATE...Burchfield