141
FXUS63 KSGF 121145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening. A few
  storms may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the
  size of quarters.

- Heat indices climb into the 100-107 degree range from Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- A cold front will bring the potential for more thunderstorms
  to the region next Wednesday or Thursday along with cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms has developed in an area of uncapped
elevated instability over the western CWA early this morning.
Storms will gradually shift east through the day today, while
generally diminishing in coverage and intensity as the LLJ
weakens. Some of these storms may produce 60 mph winds and 1"
hail, with the potential for that being early this morning.
Associated cloud cover will keep highs a bit cooler today over
all but the western CWA. Look for highs from the mid to upper
80s over much of the area, but highs over the west will be in
the low to mid 90s.

For tonight into Saturday, models continue to depict scenarios
of either a decaying MCS to isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
This makes for a lower than normal confidence level for 24 hours
out. Overall, the airmass will be warmer on Saturday which may
allow for highs in the low to mid 90s, but that will be highly
dependent on cloud cover and precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Mostly quiet and warmer weather is expected to start this period.
Next mentionable chances for precip is toward the middle of
next week when a front may move into the region, but confidence
is limited.

As for heat, expect building warmth as the heat dome over the
western CONUS breaks down some and shifts east. Look for highs
in the mid 90s Sunday, in the mid 90s to around 100 Monday and
Tuesday, then potentially a cooler in the mid 80s to mid 90s
Wednesday if the front and associated precipitation impact the
area. Thursday currently looks quite a bit cooler with highs in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Heat index values will be in the low to
mid 100s Sunday through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday (for
southern portions of the area).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly push east into
this afternoon while diminishing. After storms exist east of the
TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus