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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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320 FXUS63 KSGF 130633 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 133 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms ending by late afternoon in the eastern Ozarks. Additional thunderstorms early Saturday morning north of Interstate 44. - Heat index values will range from near 100 to 105 Sunday through Tuesday. - A cold front arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that produced scattered thunderstorms and localized heavy rain and flooding continues to track southeast into the eastern Ozarks. Thunderstorms will end from west to east with the exit of this lifting mechanism and easing of daytime heating. Dry weather is likely this evening with subsidence behind the departing MCV. Attention then focuses upstream to additional shortwave energy overtopping the upper level ridge centered over Utah. Water vapor depicts shortwave energy over Nebraska migrating southwest. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated to develop in the Plains overnight aided by this shortwave energy. With favorable northwest flow aloft, thunderstorms will be guided southeast towards the Ozarks overnight into early Saturday morning. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain scattered. The severe threat will be limited with the flooding potential enhanced where thunderstorms track over the same areas and where the highest rainfall rates are realized. The atmosphere remains moist with precipital water values over 1.25 inches. Localized heavy rain will be likely near the strongest thunderstorm updrafts. Lows tonight will remain on the mild side ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The heat builds Saturday afternoon with lingering morning convection ending and the upper ridge expanding eastward. Highs will be in the lower 90s with heat index values near 100. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The heat and impacts increase through Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build east over the Plains bringing a warmer airmass to the region. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures in the 70s. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day. Heat index values will range from near 100 to 105. Heat impacts will be cumulative due to multiple hot and muggy days with limited cooling during the overnight hours. Heat headlines are likely from Sunday through Tuesday. Heat relief and chances for thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. This front will gradually move south into the Ozarks with scattered thunderstorms developing near and behind the front. A cooler airmass will settle into the Ozarks with high pressure building over the Ohio Valley. The high will build east late next week with a steady increase in temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 For the most part, VFR conditions are expected to persist through this forecast period. However, there is a chance for scattered thunderstorms early this morning into this afternoon. Confidence in details related to that is limited at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Angle LONG TERM...Angle AVIATION...Titus