720
FXUS63 KSGF 151832
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
132 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today. Afternoon heat index values
  will range from 103 to 109 degrees. Excessive heat to linger
  into Tuesday with another Heat Advisory.

- Cold front brings 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorm
  late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Slight Risk for
  excessive rainfall and Marginal Risk for severe storms.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend with dry
  conditions until Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows that the center of the mid level high as
moved slightly east/southeast into northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado. Warm air aloft continues with 12z KSGF
sounding data showing 700mb temps of 12C and 850mb temps of 23C.
Surface low pressure continues to strengthen across the rockies
with southwest winds locally. Skies were clear across the area
with early afternoon temps already in the lower 90s. Dewpoints
continue to be in the lower to middle 70s which were
contributing to Heat Index values around 100.

This Afternoon through Tonight: With clear skies and warm air
aloft, temps will continue rising into the middle to upper 90s
through the afternoon. While some low level mixing may occur,
dews for the most part will remain above 70 therefore peak heat
index values around 105 will be common and the Heat Advisory
remains in effect.

A low level jet will increase overnight to our west as
shortwave energy drops south into the central/northern plains.
Given the strong warm air aloft/capping inversion, most of the
area will remain dry until perhaps after 3am. The timeframe from
3am-6am is when the low level jet will begin to veer into the
area and may be enough forcing to develop some elevated showers
and storms for areas along and north of I-44. Given the
uncertainty in the coverage of storms, have kept precip chances
fairly low (less than 40 percent). However if confidence
increases in more coverage then precip chances will need to be
upped.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Most of the 12z guidance suggests
that any elevated showers and storms (likely non severe) will
perhaps linger through mid/late morning or until the low level
jet weakens. A cold front will be in the process of slowly
dropping south during the day however given the lack of a strong
cold pool/push south it may stay just north of the area until
the evening. If enough clouds dissipate then strong heating
could materialize across southern Missouri. This would allow for
a warm and unstable airmass to develop. A weak wave/vort looks
to pass by during the mid afternoon and could cause isolated
thunderstorms to form. Guidance is not in agreement on location
however some argument can be made that areas east of Springfield
have the highest chance of afternoon storms in the less
capped/more unstable airmass ahead of the incoming vort/wave.
Shear looks weak (around 20kts) however given the instability
and potential for 25-30C theta E Diffs, we could see a severe
storm develop with damaging winds the main hazard.

Temperatures will be tricky given the morning clouds however
given the warm start to the day and dewpoints remaining high,
any clearing will allow for temps to climb into the 90s by the
afternoon. Heat Index values around 105 could occur again and
the Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but three counties
across the north. It is possible that the Heat Advisory could be
trimmed on its northern edges early tomorrow if it looks like
temps will be cooler. We have used a blend of NBM and short term
models for highs with the highest potential for mid 90 highs
along and south of a Joplin to Springfield to West Plains line.

By Tuesday night, a cold front to the north will be dropping
south into the area. Plenty of lift will occur across the area,
both from a low level jet interaction and the placement of the
upper level jet. Ensembles suggests one or two clusters of showers
and storms will develop along the front and drop south into the
area. While instability will diminish some overnight, there
will be enough for the potential for damaging winds with a few
storms. High PW values (1.8in) will also allow for heavy
rainfall rates that could lead to localized flash flooding. If
confidence continues to increase in the flash flood potential
then a Flood Watch may be needed for portions of the area for
Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Wednesday: The cold front will be slow to clear the area with
showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially continuing
through the morning and afternoon before diminishing late in
the day. If storms move over the same areas then some additional
flash flooding will occur. Latest NBM rainfall amount probs for
the next 48 hours indicate 60-70% chances for at least 0.50in
rainfall east of highway 65. There are also 40-50% probs for at
least one inch of rainfall in the same areas. Keep in mind that
the highest amounts will occur wherever the heavier storms
develop with some areas seeing much less than others. The 12z
HREF shows pockets of as little as 0.25in total for a few areas,
perhaps southwest of Springfield. Clouds and precip will keep
temps much cooler for Wednesday with most areas staying in the
80s.

Thursday through the weekend: Confidence continues to remain high
that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest
flow late in the week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C
range and high pressure slides through. This will lead to highs
in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Friday morning looks
the coolest with some potential for morning lows in the 50s to
around 60! These values will be about 5-15 degrees below
average for mid July. Rain chances look to remain less than 20
percent until Sunday. Ensemble clusters are beginning to
converge more on the next shortwave dropping in around this time
and may see precip chances increase as we get closer to Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a
20-30 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm affecting SGF
Tuesday morning however confidence is too low to include at this
time. Rain chances increase just after this TAF period. Winds
will remain out of the south to southwest with occasional gusts
to 20kts this afternoon. Low level wind shear is likely at the
TAF sites overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield