884
FXUS61 KRNK 090814
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
414 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure merges with the remnants of tropical depression Beryl
over the Mid Mississippi Valley today then tracks into Ohio Valley.
A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday
before becoming stationary through the end of the week. As a result
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain remain in the
forecast along with unseasonably warm temperatures and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

    - No change to Heat Advisory

    - High confidence of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
      evening

No organized forcing to trigger thunderstorms today. Bufkit forecast
soundings and convective allowing models suggest convective
temperature will be reached around noon/16z today with isolated
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. Will maintain a low
probability of precipitation during the evening as the air mass
slowly stabilizes. After midnight, low level convergence
increases as the cold front enters the mountains from the west.

No significant change to the air mass today or tonight. Surface dew
points the foothills and piedmont will stay in the 70s. Combined
with temperatures in the 90s, the heat index will be in the 100-107
degree range. Highest heat indices will be from 2-5PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Daily shower and storm chances with greatest coverage on
Wednesday.

Ample moisture advection from the south to southwest is progged to
phase with the same upper trough that picks up the remnants of TC
Beryl. While the remnant low center is set to track NEWD across the
TN and Ohio Valleys, the CWA will still be in a very moist airmass
with PWATs looking to be over 2 inches for a large portion of the
area on Wednesday. While the shear params look to be pretty low,
there could be some decent instability aided with daytime heating in
such a moist environment, so not anticipating much in the form of
organized convection but could have some strong pulse storms
with hydrometeor loading and enhanced downdrafts/microbursts.
Prior to convection, some heat indices could get close to
advisory levels of 105 mainly in the Piedmont.

The upper shortwave further ejects the Beryl remnants into New
England for Thursday, though we stay in the eastern part of the
longwave trough and associated SW flow aloft, along with some
proximity to an elongated moisture axis near the Piedmont. Will
maintain some chance to likely pops for shower and storm
development.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Some increased shower and storm activity for Friday, then gradual
heating and mainly daytime driven precip for the weekend.

Upper trough looks to have some dampening by Friday, which allows
for the moisture axis to shift westward and build more into the CWA.
Have therefore a large portion of the area with likely to
categorical pops. By the weekend, the upper flow should shift to
more zonal so temps look to moderate a bit warmer each day along
with mainly chance pops for general diurnally driven convection in a
typical summertime environment.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

No organized forcing to trigger thunderstorms today. Bufkit
forecast soundings and convective allowing models suggest
convective temperature will be reached around noon/16z today
with isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. Will
maintain a low probability of precipitation during the evening
as the air mass slowly stabilizes. After midnight, low level
convergence increases as the cold front enters the mountains
from the west.

Synoptic models were showing an area of IFR/MVFR stratus
forming in eastern North Carolina overnight and spreading north
and west into southern Virginia.

Above average confidence on wind
Average on cig/vsby and thunderstorms.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect the pattern to stay humid with daily chance of storms
mainly afternoon/evening through the week. IFR to MVFR fog at
night possible.

Mainly VFR outside storms and fog/low stratus mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Records for the warmest low temperatures may be set at
Blacksburg on today.

Today looks to be the warmest day of the week so those records
have been listed here.

July 9th
Site  MaxT Year   Warm Low Year
KBLF    92 2007    75 1994
KDAN   103 1977    76 1987
KLYH   102 1936    74 1992
KROA   101 1936    77 1992
KRNK    97 1988    67 1939

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

KFCX Radar will be inoperative until the technicians can work on
on replacing the defective part by late Tuesday or possibly Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ034-035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...AMS
EQUIPMENT...WP