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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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202 FXUS61 KRNK 161637 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1237 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and hot temperatures will cover the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through today. A cold front will track out of the Ohio Valley, reaching the area late Wednesday into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. The front, along with cooler temperatures, and a continued daily chance of precipitation will remain in the region into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday... No major changes have been made to the forecast since the last update. We are starting to see the development of isolated showers near the spine of the Blue Ridge from the Fancy Gap area southwest into the northwest mountains of North Carolina. As we progress through the afternoon, all locations will have the potential for isolated showers/storms, but the greater concentrations are expected to be over the mountains through the mid-afternoon, and then start to shift east into the Piedmont by the late afternoon and early evening. Heat Index values over 105 are still expected within the region of the Heat Advisory. As of 945 AM EDT Tuesday... Remnant cloud cover outflow from an MCS that was across the Midwest last night reached western sections of the region shortly after daybreak. Since then, this area of cloud cover has continued southeast across the region. The bulk of this cloud cover has been thin high cloud cover, however some low to mid- level cloud cover has been among the mix as well. The existence of these clouds has slowed the increase in temperatures through the morning hours so that most locations are experiencing values about three to five degrees cooler than what was expected. However, we do expected these remnant clouds to continue on their southeast heading. As they exit, the clearing skies they leave in their wake will be replaced by developing cumulus and by the early afternoon the first of the expected isolated to scattered showers across the region. After a couple of hours more the first isolated to scattered storms. Have tweaked hourly grids for temperature, dew point, and sky cover to better reflect the ongoing conditions and expected trends into the early afternoon. We are forecasting no change in expected high temperatures and resultant Heat Index values for this afternoon. As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Hot weather continues. 2) Slightly better coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. Quiet weather this morning across the region with patchy areas of morning fog developing. Upstream MCS continues through the Midwest and may have some cirrus spread southeast from the MCS by daybreak. Overall flow remains westerly as the associated upper wave responsible for the complex of storms to the west passes through the Great Lakes today and then into New England by this evening. With slightly better moisture return today, could see slightly better coverage of thunderstorms by this afternoon. Best chance appears to be along the Blue Ridge and west, then possibly spreading into the Piedmont through the evening. Best forcing still remains to the north, but could have a few stronger storms capable of isolated wind damage and localized heavy rainfall. Highs this afternoon still look to be quite hot. Still questionable if any cirrus from upstream convection makes it here, which if it does, this could limit heating a bit...especially across the mountains. Another limitation would be sooner initiation of storms. With that said, still think a few spots from Roanoke and east will be flirting with 100F. No changes to the current Heat Advisory that is currently in effect. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms during Wednesday and Thursday from a cold front. 2) Temperatures will trend lower to end the work week as the cold front stalls across North Carolina. A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. CAPE could reach around 1,500 J/kg by the afternoon as temperatures rise into the 80s and 90s, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the mountains first and spread eastward across the Blue Ridge by the evening. Heavy downpours and gusty winds from outflow of any stronger storms should be the biggest concerns. An upper level trough will pass to the north by Wednesday night into Thursday, which should push the cold front through Virginia and West Virginia. The threat for strong storms should move towards North Carolina by Thursday afternoon with the same concerns of heavy rain and gusty winds. Meanwhile, cooler air will begin to arrive from the northwest after the frontal passage. Temperatures should trend notably lower with highs only in the 70s and 80s by Friday. However, the cold front will become oriented parallel to the flow aloft and stall across North Carolina. While the thunder chances should be considerably reduced in coverage, a few storms may be possible across North Carolina during Friday afternoon. Some showers might spill northward into Virginia and West Virginia but will run into more stable air to limit any threat of convection. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is increasing for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day due to a stalled frontal boundary. 2) Temperatures should stay near or slightly below normal. The models reveal a stalled frontal boundary staying across North Carolina throughout the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A blocking upper level ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will prevent any movement in the overall synoptic pattern for the foreseeable future. Although temperatures should stay near or slightly below normal with highs only reaching the 70s and 80s, the close proximity of the stalled frontal boundary will keep the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day throughout this time period. This chance should be maximized along the North Carolina and Virginia border as the frontal boundary slowly buckles northward over time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday... Generally VFR through the period except for potential thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, although not widespread, there is enough confidence to add VCTS into all terminals. Thunderstorms will feature heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Perhaps some patchy valley fog possible tonight, but not enough confidence to add mention of BR/FG at any one particular site. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Better chance SHRA/TSRA chances arrive Thursday along with potential sub-VFR, with shower/storm chances lingering Lower confidence on location of the front and coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. && .CLIMATE... As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday... Temperatures may come close to record high temperatures and/or record warm low temperatures for today, July 16. Below is a table that lists these values for locations in our region and the years those records were set. ************* RECORDS FOR July 16 ************* +=============================================+ | LOCATION | RECORD HIGH | RECORD WARM LOW | | Blacksburg | 93 in 1983 | 70 in 2020 | | Bluefield | 96 in 1988 | 71 in 1980 | | Danville | 102 in 1934 | 77 in 1920 | | Lynchburg | 103 in 1934 | 76 in 1937 | | Roanoke | 100 in 1988 | 74 in 2020 | +=============================================+ && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058- 059. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG/DS SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG CLIMATE...BMG