222
FXUS61 KRNK 181041
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front moves across the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas into
tonight, then shifts south of the area by Friday allowing for
cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend
and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Front crosses the region today.

2) Heavy rain and thunderstorms possible again this afternoon.

Rain and thunderstorm activity has mostly subsided this morning
with only a few remaining showers spread across different
portions of the area. Main surface front still remains draped
across Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee and will only make slow
progress east through this evening.

An area of thunderstorm over Kentucky this morning will slowly
progress east and should arrive into western portions of the CWA
by daybreak. This weak wave will be the focus for regeneration
of afternoon storms. Although skies likely to be mostly cloudy,
some breaks over the eastern areas may occur leading to pockets
of high instability into the VA/NC Piedmont. This zone along
and south of the VA/NC has the best chance to see thunderstorm
activity, with some storms strong to severe. Storms will be
capable of strong damaging winds and very heavy rainfall leading
to areas of localized flooding.

Front stalls just south of the VA/NC border tonight and showers
and possibly thunderstorm could continue until midnight for the
southern portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms due to a stalled frontal boundary.

2) Temperatures will remain near seasonable values.

A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped over North Carolina
during Friday and the upcoming weekend. Consequently, scattered
showers and thunderstorms should develop every afternoon and evening
during this time period. Friday appears to offer the lowest coverage
due to less unstable air in place across Virginia and West Virginia.
However, the instability should begin to creep upward despite
ongoing cloud cover during the weekend to increase the coverage of
convection. Heavy downpours will be possible in any of the stronger
storms. Temperatures will only reach the 70s and 80s for afternoon
highs with generally 60s for morning lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to continue into the next work week.

2) Little change in temperatures are expected with values staying
near normal.

The forecast will continue like a broken record into the new work
week with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and
near normal temperatures. A stalled frontal boundary will remain
trapped between an upper level trough over the central Mississippi
River Valley and an upper level ridge over Bermuda. The ridge may
try to slide westward during this time period to push the frontal
boundary slowly northward. However, the frontal boundary will still
remain draped across the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. With each
passing day of this stagnant synoptic pattern, the concerns about
drought are ending and turning more towards concerns about flooding
from repeated rounds of heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

A mix of LIFR to VFR across the area this morning and wide
ranges of flight categories are expected to continue for another
hour or so. Should see some improvements by 12z/8am, but could
still have some areas of MVFR cigs remain across the mountains
until noon.

Rain approaching from the west this morning and another round of
storms are expected to develop for locations along and east of
the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Strong winds and very heavy
rainfall are the main concerns.

Sub-VFR again tonight with lowering cigs and fog.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just
south of the area into the weekend. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Friday
through Monday. Expect sub-VFR conditions with any of these
storms.

Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG