967
FXUS61 KRLX 060720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues crossing this morning, and high pressure
brings dry weather the balance of the weekend. Above normal
afternoon temperatures remain until Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

Thunderstorms had dissipated and showers had become very light
and spotty, as they advanced eastward ahead of an approaching
cold front. Crossing the Ohio River overnight, the front will
cross WV and southwest Virginia this morning. This, and the high
dew points ahead of the front, should keep at least showers
possible in and near the mountains through around daybreak this
morning. However, no appreciable uptick in convection is
anticipated.

Areas of stratus and fog forming overnight amid light low level
flow in the leftover moisture from the rain Friday, should lift
out after daybreak this morning, and low cloud areas should
further lift and scatter out by late morning.

High pressure will bring an afternoon cumulus field atop the
mixing layer, beneath the subsidence inversion, and then a
clear, calm night tonight. Areas of dense fog are likely to
form overnight tonight on account of the clear, calm conditions,
and recent rain.

Mid/upper-level flow remains southwest in the wake of the cold
front today and tonight, with heights hardly changing. Central
guidance reflects highs today and lows tonight still just a bit
above normal, but did go lower on lows tonight in valleys away
from rivers given the clear, calm conditions expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

High pressure sitting overhead for Sunday allowing for the
continuation of mostly clear skies and dry weather for the forecast
area. Above normal temperatures will also be in play with high-80s
and low-90s being common for the lowlands. The mountains will see
temperatures in the mid-70s to the mid-80s.

Some patchy valley fog will be possible Sunday morning and again
overnight into Monday morning, but that is the only weather to note
for the short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

Monday certainly looks to be the hottest and most humid day next
week with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the lowlands. South
to southwest flow will resume to usher in more humidity and moisture
with dew points reaching the 70s for some locations. Temperatures
look to remain above normal until a cold front crosses Tuesday into
Wednesday. Wednesday`s high temperatures look to be below
normal, ahead of a warming trend which starts Thursday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase on Monday with a
shortwave and most definitely on Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish as they move
east across WV overnight, ahead of a cold front. Nonetheless, at
least showers will reach and cross the mountains during the
predawn hours.

A greater chance for ceiling and visibility reduction is from
fog and stratus/stratocumulus that is expected to form in the
leftover moisture from the rain Friday, amid light low level
flow. IFR visibility is most likely at PKB, which had nearly an
inch rainfall Friday.

The fog should lift around dawn, perhaps briefly into stratus.
Any stratus or stratocu should lift and scatter out by late
morning, and then the rest of the day will bring a cumulus VFR
field that will fade by sunset.

Light southwest surface flow ahead of the cold front overnight
will become light west behind it on Saturday, and then calm
Saturday night. Flow aloft will generally be light west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog and MVFR stratocu/IFR
stratus overnight, and its dissipation Saturday morning, may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 07/06/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    L    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in dense fog is likely overnight Saturday night into early
Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM