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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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797 FXUS65 KRIW 111914 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 114 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely from Monday through Wednesday. - Warmer and mostly dry conditions expected Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Brief ridging today in between disturbances will keep conditions cool, but dry and breezy. Monday afternoon the next shortwave embedded in the flow makes its way into Wyoming, increasing precipitation chances once again. Due to the cooler temperatures and limited instability, thunderstorms that develop are not expected to be particularly strong, but strong winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. Tuesday into Wednesday, a stronger shortwave trough pushes through, ingesting more moisture into the region, continuing the chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. NAEFS percentiles show widespread near 90th percentile precipitable water values across Wyoming between 0.75 to 1.00 inch. Thursday brings drier and warmer conditions as a ridging pattern takes back over through the weekend. Weak disturbances embedded in the flow could kick off a few thunderstorms daily, but the confidence is low in any widespread impacts. Thunderstorm chances increase slightly Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge shifts eastward, placing central and western Wyoming on the western side, allowing some moisture to creep back in. Temperatures during this time are expected to be in the 70s to 80s west of the divide and 80s to low 90s east of the divide. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. No showers or thunderstorms are expected to impact any terminals this afternoon. A few may develop over the mountains, but should be very isolated and remain away from any sites. The closest would be for KCOD, but chances remain under 20% through this evening. Afternoon mixing brings gusts 15 to 30 knots for some sites, which decrease after sunset this evening. Models are showing rain showers moving into Wyoming, from the west, after 09Z/Mon. There is model disagreement on exact timings and placements, so confidence remains low on the details. Have included PROB30 groups in many TAFs where these chances occur. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases after the TAF period, for Monday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A combination of humidity falling into the teens and a gusty westerly breeze will bring elevated fire weather to portions of Sweetwater and southern Lincoln Counties today. Elsewhere, although there will be a gusty breeze at times, relative humidity will remain above critical levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated today and confined mainly to northern Wyoming. Mixing and smoke dispersal will be generally good to excellent in the afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms return to the west tomorrow and spread across most of the area for Tuesday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ DISCUSSION...Gross AVIATION...Wittmann FIRE WEATHER...Hattings