386
FXUS65 KRIW 110354
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
954 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues today with some isolated storms
  across the Winds and off the Absarokas.

- Hottest temperatures to come Thursday through Sunday.

- More seasonable with increasing precipitation chances early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

IR currently depicts mainly clear skies under an upper level
high centered to the southwest. Some cooling cloud tops
associated with a couple isolated weak storms over the Winds and
off the Absarokas extending to the Owl Creeks throughout the
afternoon. No impacts are expected at this time. Otherwise,
warming trend continues today with a slight breeze at some
locations 10-20 mph with no wind and limited fire weather
threats going forward despite the increasing temperatures and
lowering relative humidity values.

The big story will be with the building ridge to the west with
increasing convergence aloft fueling the weak upper level flow
pattern and pulling up the desert heat. Near record heat is
expected with some locations across the Wind River and Bighorn
Basins possibly breaking some high temperature records. Models
are still on track with this with H7 temperatures pushing into
the low 20s C. 100 degree temperatures expected east of the
Divide and 90s to the west through Sunday.

As the bridge weakens and shifts east late weekend, a weak
trough looks to skirt to the north that will bring a "reprieve"
to the heat becoming more seasonable. Models are still not in
great agreement on precipitation but higher elevations and
northern counties should have the best chances for early to mid
next week. Otherwise, longer term outlooks continue to have
average precipitation and above average temperatures that even
though it is July, it still out of the norm being this warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

Prevailing VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Wind will
increase by about mid-afternoon Thursday and decrease around sunset.
Wind will be sustained in the low teens, with gusts around 20 knots.
Skies will remain mostly clear, although mid-level scattered cumulus
will develop in the afternoon. Thermals will be quite strong
Thursday afternoon.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

Prevailing VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Wind will
increase by about mid-afternoon Thursday and decrease around sunset.
Wind will be sustained in the low teens, with gusts around 20 knots.
Another afternoon of isolated convection will occur Thursday on the
periphery of the ridge as it takes its sweet time moving north and
east. Lingering showers are possible (30%) into Thursday evening
around KCPR. Similar to Wednesday numerous outflow boundaries are
likely (70%) in the afternoon as downdrafts from convection develop.
This will lead to gusty erratic wind at times through Thursday
afternoon/into the evening hours. Thermals will be quite strong
Thursday afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 10 PM MDT Sunday for
WYZ004>006-010-011-017-018-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Rowe